Thursday, January 20, 2022 Light Morning Snow

 A strong Arctic cold front is set to cross the state late Wednesday evening. Ahead of the Arctic front, temperatures will be several-plus degrees above-freezing, thus precipitation at the onset will be in the form of rain. However, much colder air rapidly filters in on the backside of the front. Typically with these Arctic cold front, there is a race between the ending of the precipitation and the advection of drier air vs. the advection of colder air (cold enough for precipitation to transition from rain to snow). In this instance, however, forecast models are advertising an abundance of moisture on the backside of the front (coined an anafront). 

As a result of a very tight pressure gradient between the airmass ahead of the Arctic front and the Arctic air behind the front, there will be a very narrow corridor of enhanced low-level convergence and forcing which forecast models are in great agreement on this narrow corridor traversing southern Connecticut. This indicates at least a few hour period of light-to-moderate snow (perhaps even briefly on the heavier side) traversing portions of southern Connecticut:

Temperatures along the immediate shoreline will take a bit longer to drop below-freezing as the Arctic front may actually slow down just before clearing the state. This will keep precipitation falling as rain a bit longer along the immediate shoreline, however, even here rain should end as a bit of snow. 

This mini event could have implications on a potential storm this weekend, however, there is very little consistency or agreement within the forecast models at this time, however, the potential certainly exists for a storm to work up the coast bringing the potential for snow and/or a wintry mix. More on that later in the week :)

What to expect:

• Showers begin working into the state anywhere between 1:00 AM - 4:00 AM EST Thursday.
• Showers will quickly transition to light snow statewide (exception being right along the immediate shoreline) with some more moderate snow across southern Connecticut just away from the immediate shoreline. 
• Snow begins to taper off between 9:00 AM -11:00 AM Thursday morning.
• Expect a slow Thursday morning commute and anticipate icy conditions due to snow and temperatures falling below-freezing.