Friday, January 7, 2022 Connecticut Snowstorm Potential

 For snow lovers, the start of the 2021-2022 winter season has been nothing but subpar. While the weather pattern has been on the active side, we just haven't been able to muster up a good, solid snow event. There is a chance that could change as we move towards the end of the week. 

As of Tuesday evening, a low pressure system was rapidly strengthening across the northern Plains with a strong Arctic cold front plunging through the northern-tier of the country. This Arctic cold front is then slated to move across the Northeast Thursday and that will usher in Arctic air into the state, planting the more than sufficient cold air needed for snow:

There are two things we will be watching over the next few days:

1) Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, an area of low pressure develops across northern Texas and moves east across the Southeast Thursday bringing wintry precipitation across that region. This low pressure continues to emerge east-northeast into the mid-Atlantic states, towards the coast. 

2) A sharp longwave upper-level trough amplifying as it moves across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast:

As the upper-level trough catches and phases with the surface low pressure, this, combined with strong upper-level divergence thanks to the jet stream structure, should result in rapid cyclogenesis of the low pressure system. The BIGGEST key here is how quickly does this process happen? While all the cards are there for a significant snow event, this is far from certainty. 

As it stands right now, the timing of these key features may be a bit off. This would result in storm intensification happening just a bit too far offshore to bring significant snows, BUT we would likely still see at least snow with the chance for minor accumulations. 

Given this is tied into phasing that aspect is very tough to pindown and nail even getting past a few days out. This is because the likelihood of phasing and subsequently, a storm is all tied into the timing of the key pieces involved. 

We should get a much clearer idea on this picture moving into Wednesday afternoon!