Over the past 2-3 days, computer forecast model guidance continued to waiver and diverge between a more west and east track. Evolution of the mid and upper levels of the storm favored a more westward track, however, the evolution of the storm at the surface favored a more east track...so what was going to give? Unfortunately, there was really no way to full know this. So for forecasters, this left two options: 1) Be aggressive or 2) Be much less aggressive. There was no middle ground. The only way to know what would transpire was to watch the storm evolve in real time.
Latest mesoanalysis data shows the surface low pressure has consolidated on the eastward track (indicated by the red L and red arrow). This has resulted in the heaviest snows only getting into far eastern Connecticut. Connecticut is outlined in blue. The green arrow represents the track I thought we would see:
Eastern Massachusetts through Rhode Island and far eastern Connecticut are getting absolutely crushed with an extremely band of heavy snow and very strong winds as advertised by the radar below. This is where the highest snowfall totals will occur with totals likely exceeding 2 feet in the hardest hit places.
For Connecticut, the highest totals will occur within the purple shaded area and these will include 2+ foot amounts. As you work west across Connecticut, snowfall totals will become significantly less.
The gradient from west-to-east across the state will be wild. That is quite impressive for such a small state, but this just goes to show how slight deviations in a west/east track can mean substantial differences in snow totals! Whether you're getting slammed or a much more tame event, enjoy the storm!
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