Friday, January 7, 2022 Connecticut Snowfall Forecast Update

 It is time to bring 'em up! After assessing forecast model data from overnight Wednesday through Thursday afternoon, there have been trends towards more snow across Connecticut. Why is this? Forecast models are becoming in stronger agreement that the storm will intensify more quickly with this occurring closer to the coast. The end result in a greater abundance of precipitation over Connecticut, hence, higher snowfall totals. This will be a fast-moving storm which will limit totals to a degree.

Given the earlier development, forecast models are in general agreement low pressure at 850mb (roughly 5,000 feet above the ground) will become better defined as it is passing southeast of Connecticut. This is a historically favorable track for moderate-to-heavy snow to overspread Connecticut:

As the low is tracking northeast just south of Connecticut, a band of very strong frontogenesis will traverse the state. This is indicative of heavy snow and this should occur for the majority of the state:

12z NAM Bufkit for Windsor Locks, CT (BDL) indicates upwards of 20 units of omega (the negative-valued red contour indicate upward vertical motion) just touch the top of the dendritic snow growth zone (purple/yellow contours). This further indicates a period of heavy snow will occur:

So this what can ex expect:

• Snow begins between midnight - 3:00 AM across the state. 
• Snow quickly becomes moderate-to-heavy across the state with peak snow intensities occurring between 5:00 AM - 9:00 AM EST. 
• During this time snowfall rates could approach 1.5'' per hour. 
• Snow ratios approaching 13:1 to 14:1 so snow will be rather light and fluffy.
• Snow rapidly begins to subside moving into the late morning and is out of the state by early afternoon outside of some residual flurries. The sun may even make an appearance by mid-afternoon. 
• Winds will be light during the storm, however, increase as the storm pulls away with gusts 20-30 during the afternoon. Wind chills Friday evening and overnight into the single digits and teens.