Monday, January 17, 2022 Connecticut "Snowfall" Forecast

 Computer forecast models have been incredible agreement the past several days on a significant low pressure system blossoming within the Tennessee Valley and Southeast and then turning up the mid-Atlantic. The question was whether we would be looking at a significant winter storm or not here in Connecticut. If you're a snow lover, unfortunately the news is not very good. Disclaimer: Just because I am posting images from a particular forecast model below does not mean I am siding with that model or solely using that model in the deriving of my forecast. It is just being used for illustrative purposes.

A piece of shortwave energy currently diving southeast through the central Plains rapidly strengthens and amplifies as it moves into the Southeast. This system will have already reached maturity within this region early Sunday. This is evident by a tighly closed 500mb low and jet streak already having rounded the base of the trough:

To begin the day Sunday, high pressure will initially be present over New England with the strengthening low pressure system across the Southeast. High pressure over New England is expected to depart off to the northeast moving into Monday while the low pressure turns up the mid-Atlantic:

With the system strengthening so rapidly and so far to our southwest this will result in a very strong onshore flow developing within the lower-levels of the atmosphere. This combined with the retreating high pressure is going to allow for much warmer air to rapidly advect into Connecticut. This will ultimately result in snow quickly changing over to some sleet, freezing rain, and then heavy rain:

Despite a lackluster storm in the snowfall department, this will be a fairly impactful storm. Heavy rain with a frozen ground could result in runoff and localized flash flooding potential. Strong winds are expected across the state with gusts 50-60 mph along the shoreline and gusts 35-50 mph inland resulting in scattered power outages. Very strong onshore winds combined with astronomical high tides may bring about major coastal flooding as well. 

What to Expect:

• Precipitation likely begins as snow across the entire state between 11:00 PM Sunday - 2:00 AM EST Monday. The only exception may be right along the immediate shoreline where precipitation may be a bit of a sleet/freezing rain mix (if not plain rain).
• Snow overspread inland areas during the overnight with snow coming down moderate at times (even heavy in the northwest and northeast hills). 
• Warmer air rapidly moves into the state causing snow to briefly change over to sleet and freezing rain and then heavy rain. The northwest hills will be the last to change over. 
• Winds will begin to ramp up as well with gusts 35-50 mph inland and 50-60 mph along the shoreline. Scattered power outages are likely. 
• Strong onshore flow and astronomical high tides may yield major coastal flooding. 
• Rain tapers off during the morning and may actually end with some scattered snow showers across the state.
• Below is my current thoughts for snow accumulations: