Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Winter Storm Set to Bring Major/Significant Snowfall Accumulations, Blizzard Conditions to southern New England

A rather potent coastal storm will bring major (widespread 8-12'') and significant (12''+) snowfall accumulations to southern New England beginning tomorrow and lasting into the first half of Friday.
A piece of shortwave energy is diving down from Canada into the central Plains as a trough develops and continues to amplify (strengthen).  This will allow the piece of shortwave energy to rapidly strengthen as well.  At the same time, a shortwave, albeit weaker, is moving out of Mexico into southern Texas and into the Gulf Coast states.  This shortwave will spawn an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and will begin to strengthen as it's influenced by the stronger shortwave.

As the trough continues digging into the Plains and begins advancing eastward, the trough will continue to amplify and dig, becoming quite strong which will allow for rapid cyclogenesis (deepening of the low pressure) just off the East coast.  The amplifying trough will also allow for the low pressure to track close enough to the region to allow for heavy snowfall.


What We Are Looking At:


  • Periods of light snow are expected to develop early AM Thursday morning with pockets of moderate/heavier snowfall as well.  As the day wares on periods of moderate to heavier snow will become much more common. 
  • The heaviest of the snowfall will be occurring during the overnight hours of Thursday into Friday morning.  During this time snowfall rates could potentially exceed 3'' per hour (especially with any thunder snow)
  • With a strong area of high pressure off to our north and west and a rapidly deepening area of low pressure, this will create a several hour window of very strong winds across the region.  At times winds could gust as high as 35-45 mph.  This will lead to periods of blizzard conditions.  
  • The heaviest snowfall accumulations are expected to occur across RI, eastern MA, and the Cape
  • With very strong lift associated with this system along with some elevated instability, the potential will exist for thundersnow as well which will lead to locally higher snowfall rates.
  • Temperatures will be quite cold during the duration of the storm as well with temperatures ranging from the single digits to the lower teens.  This coupled with favorable conditions aloft will lead to very high snow ratios, potentially as high as 15:1.  
  • The snow will be very light and fluffy, allowing snow to accumulate very rapidly.  Given how light/fluffy the snow is along with very strong winds this will work to 1) Make snowfall measuring very difficult, if not impossible 2) Allow for drifting snow 3) Ratios could be negatively affected as strong winds may rip apart dendrites which could also have an impact on snowfall totals.  
  • Based on what the computer forecast guidance is showing, this is what I'm currently expecting:

No comments:

Post a Comment