As we move through the remainder of this Saturday, all eyes are on Henri and just how much Henri strengthens as it now moves into a more favorable environment for strengthening. For the past few days Henri has been impacted by very strong wind shear to the north. Henri, however, is moving away from this stronger wind shear and is moving over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream. As of this writing, Henri was not looking particularly great, but it is slowly trying to strengthen.
Below, is the latest forecast track with cone of uncertainty from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
The NHC is forecasting Henri to make landfall across the eastern tip of Long Island as either a strong tropical storm or a low-end category 1 hurricane with the center then passing over Madison, CT with maximum sustained winds of 70-mph with gusts upwards of 85-mph and tropical storm-force winds (my estimation of gusts 40-60 mph) across the majority of the state. However, notice there is still a quite a bit of spread in potential landfall with the cone as far west as western Long Island and as far east as eastern Rhode Island. This is due to the questions regarding exactly how strong Henri gets today and interactions with an upper-level low to our west:
My anticipation is that Henri will make landfall across central or eastern Long Island (more likely eastern Long Island) and then swing northwest into the Connecticut shoreline. I am unsure of strength but if it is as strong as what the NHC is suggesting...we will see big problems statewide. Below are my thoughts on each storm phenomena:
Wind: The latest GFS computer forecast model, with it's forecast track of Henri, forecast winds anywhere from 50-70+ knots about 2,500 feet above the ground east of the Connecticut River as Henri moves into southeast Connecticut.
It is my estimation this would result in widespread wind gusts of 40-60+ mph across much of the state for a solid 3-5 hours. Wind gusts along the shoreline just east of the center could approach 80-90 mph.
Power Outages: These winds would cause extremely widespread wind damage, some structural damage, and power outages along the shoreline just east of the track with widespread power outages and tree damage across a large portion of the state. Hardest hit areas should prepare to be without power for upwards of several days.
Storm surge/Coastal Flooding: Forecasts are for 3-5 feet of storm surge along the Connecticut shoreline and this would bring about significant-to-devastating coastal flooding.
Rainfall/Freshwater Flooding: The heaviest rain and highest totals would occur just west of the track and that places the highest rainfall totals along and west of the Connecticut River. Rainfall of 4-8'' with a narrow swath of 8-12'' is likely. This would promote widespread significant flooding.
Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible with embedded thunderstorms, especially just to the east and northeast of the storm track. This would likely be northeast Connecticut into Rhode Island and into southeast Massachusetts.
Timing: It is very possible we see some bands of torrential downpours and embedded thunderstorms move into the state later tonight (which would carry a isolated tornado risk). Weather conditions begin to rapidly deteriorate moving through late Sunday morning. The worst of the winds happen late morning through late afternoon but the rain/flooding threat should persist well into the evening.
Let's be very thankful this is not a much stronger storm or that it is not approaching us at a faster speed.
