Snowfall Forecast Update: Forecast Still on Track

Reviewing data as it has become available since yesterday's forecast, at this time there will be no changes from the previous forecast and everything still appears to be on track.  Computer forecast guidance has remained quite consistent with how this system will evolve with the exception of a few minor changes but I don't think these changes will have substantial impacts on snowfall totals.  If anything, perhaps far western areas of the forecast might receive a bit less in the way of snow but at this time I see no need to make adjustments.  What I'm also watching out for is the possibility of an inverted trough developing late tomorrow morning which could prolonged periods of heavier snowfall across far eastern MA/Cape areas...if this is the case the potential would exist for more snowfall than currently forecasted for these areas.

Forecast soundings indicate we will be dealing with very good snowgrowth which will lead to beautiful dendrites...nice big fluffy snowflakes which will accumulate very quickly.  We will also be dealing with some incredible snowfall ratios which could perhaps exceed 15:1 or even 20:1.  This will lead to the higher totals we will see.

What to expect as we move through today:

• Snow will begin falling across the region from SW to NE as the afternoon progresses.  While snow will remain predominately light across the region, areas across the CT/RI coast may experience bursts of moderate to heavy snow as models have some pretty strong lift across these areas.  As the afternoon progresses, these bands of heavier snowfall will work northward. 

• Given very cold ground and cold temperatures, snow will begin sticking immediately, this will make more very slick roadways and hazardous travel. 

• The heaviest of the snowfall will occur between the hours of 7 PM-7AM tomorrow for much of the region with the exception of eastern MA/Cape where heavier snow may linger past 8-10 AM.  

• During the height of the storm winds will begin to increase as well with gusts potentially up to 35 mph across the region.  Across far eastern MA/Cape area, winds could gust to near 50 mph with sustained winds 20-30 mph.  This will not only lead to blizzard conditions but dangerous wind chill values as well.

As of now, no changes have been made from yesterday's snowfall map.  Any adjustments will be made as necessary as the storm is occurring and we start to see where the strongest forcing/lift will reside over and where exactly the heaviest banding sits over.  Typically you have to wait until the storm is occurring to determine this as these are what we call "mesoscale" factors.  This means they occur on a very small scale and our computer models have a very difficult time handling these features well.