Quick Hitting Storm to Bring Accumulating Snow to CT Overnight Sunday into Monday

A quick hitting weather system is set to bring some accumulating snow to CT Sunday night into Monday morning. In addition to snow, there will also be some sleet mixed in as well with the higher likelihood of this along the shoreline. This isn't going to be a major event, however, this could yield a low Monday morning commute with clean-up efforts underway.

The synoptic pattern is characterized by a very potent upper-level jet stream ejecting northeastward out of the Pacific with a trough in the western United States and a ridge in the southeastern United States. This will lead to Pacific moisture being advected into our area. Energy associated with a closed upper-level low across the northern Plains will eject through the Ohio Valley and pass near our area. This will result in the development of a weak surface low pressure:

Thanks in part to a confluent flow aloft we'll have to watch as to exactly how far northward not only precipitation makes it, but the potential for some heavier echos of precipitation. This is huge because it will mean the difference in a general 1-2'' for most and as much as 3-4'':

Much of the lift associated with this system will be more associated with thermal advection (although this will be weakening) as opposed to intense lifting which would occur if low pressures at 850mb and 700mb were passing to the south and east. This will likely result in some embedded echos of moderate to perhaps heavy snow while for the most part snow will fall on the light side:

Bufkit soundings aren't particularly impressive, but they do suggest a several-hour period of light snowfall and again, some echos of moderate-to-heavy snow. The GFS is a bit more robust with lift into the dendritic snowgrowth zone:

Breakdown:

• Snow arrives 9:00 PM - midnight
• Mostly light, but some echos of moderate-to-heavy snow (will be brief)
• Exiting between 5:00 AM and 9:00 AM
• Could see some sleet/freezing rain mix along immediate shoreline
• A couple localized totals of 3'' possible (where the echos of heaviest snow fall)
• Minor impacts for Monday morning commute with some delays likely