CT Snowfall Update

Some minor changes to the forecast, however, the general idea remains the same. Latest forecast guidance sort of diverges with how things evolve tonight. Some of the latest forecast models develop a rather modest band of moderate-to-heavy snowfall and track it right over CT while some of the higher-resolution short-term models are less aggressive.

As discussed in yesterday's post, there is a pretty strongly confluent flow over the region:

This confluence which increases convergence may result in keeping the heavier precipitation farther south. There is also concern for some dry air. While the atmosphere will saturation, there will be a northern-fringe point to where this may not happen and this very well could be over much of CT.

The NAM and GFS forecast soundings are a bit more impressive with lift into the snow growth zone, indicating there could be a period of moderate...perhaps even heavy snow. However, there is going to be a big battle between a saturated snow growth zone and an unsaturated one and this will be huge in when talking about the formation of bid dendrites (which accumulate more easily) or smaller more fine snow flakes (which don't accumulate as rapidly). Below are bufkit soundings for Windsor Locks, CT from the GFS, NAM, and HRRR. On the left both the NAM and GFS indicate as much as 15 units of omega within the snow growth zone...indicative of moderate-to-heavy snow. However, on the right we are looking at relative humidity in terms of ice and not much above 100% within the zone. The HRRR is even less impressive:

All in all we may see a very narrow band of moderate-to-heavy snow move through the state. This may yield a strip of 4'' of snow, however, most everyone should see anywhere from 2 to 3'' tonight. Expect a slippery Monday morning commute.