Messy Winter Storm to Impact CT 02/12/2019 into 02/13/2019

Tracking the potential for yet another extremely messy winter storm in the late Monday night into Wednesday time frame. Like some of the past few storms, we will have to deal with snow transitioning over to sleet, freezing rain, and even some plain old rain for some. There is the potential for some significant impacts with this system; particularly with regards to the icing potential, however, this will be highly dependent on some features which will be addressed below.

A vigorous piece of shortwave energy associated with a shortwave trough will be progressing the country over the next few days. Associated with this will be an area of low pressure which is actually slated to move to our northwest. Typically when we see such a track we're talking about a warmer solution and either a little bit of winter weather or just flat out rain. However, there are some features which will be in place (along with a developing secondary area of low pressure) which will warrant wintry precipitation.

One of the key features will be an area of high pressure sliding west-to-east(ish) across southeastern Canada. This high pressure is forecasted to be fairly strong (about 1040mb!) as it's passing to our north. Keep in mind that air moves clockwise around high pressure in the northern hemisphere:

This area of high pressure is going to do two things;

1) This is going to create a "wall". Precipitation is really going to struggle to move northward into our area until the high pressure loses its control over our area and this happens as it continues to depart to the east.

2) Going back to what was said just above the graphic, air flows clockwise around high pressure in the northern hemisphere. Given the position of the high pressure, this will funnel down cold and dry air from southeastern Canada and the Canadian Maritime down into our area. The drier air will also make it difficult at first for precipitation to reach the ground, but the cold air (being more dense) is going to sink towards the surface. This is HUGE because with the main storm track to our west this will yield warming of the atmosphere from a few thousand feet above the ground up until about 10,000 feet off the ground. Temperatures will warm above freezing within this layer, however, they may remain below freezing below this layer. This is our recipe for sleet and freezing rain. Which one of these precipitation types is more dominant will ultimately depend on the depth of the colder layer at the surface and exactly where temperatures aloft warm above freezing.

Breaking it down:

• Light snow works into SW CT between midnight and 3:00 AM Tuesday morning and then overspreading the state over the next several hours. 
• Snow will quickly pick-up in intensity with moderate-to-heavy snow. 
• Snow will quickly begin to transition over to some sleet and then rain along the immediate shoreline. Snowfall totals should be minimal. 
• 1-3'' of snow is likely across much of interior CT away from the immediate shoreline with the highest totals across the extreme northern part of the state where they may hold onto snow a bit longer. 
• Snow will begin to transition to sleet and then freezing rain across central CT. The potential exists for some significant icing somewhere. 
• Sleet is more likely across the extreme northern part of the state. 
• Significant travel impacts are likely Tuesday through the Wednesday morning commute. 
• Winds could gusts 25-35 mph, especially along the shoreline. 
• Coastal flooding is likely in some spots as well with flash flooding in some spots along the coast.