Tuesday, March 14th, 2017 Blizzard Update

A rather impressive mid-March blizzard is set to strike the state of CT tomorrow.  While my forecasts have certainly been much lower with respect to everyone else (all my reasoning why is in my previous blog posts) there are several issues which I am worried about which is why I am much more conservative.  I've done enough scientific talk in the previous posts so I will refrain from that here and this post will just be a forecast.  However, I will briefly explain some of my concerns once again.
As we close on the event there actually continues to be some increasing spread within the computer forecast models which is rather unusual.  Typically they begin to converge.  There continues to be questions with exactly where the surface low pressure tracks and where the 850mb and 700mb lows track and this will be pivotal in determining where the heaviest banding occurs, where the highest snowfall totals occur, and if anyone sees any mixing.  I am also worried with dry air descending through the troposphere into the snowgrowth zone which would inhibit better snowflake production.  Very strong winds throughout the troposphere could also tear snowflakes apart as they descend towards the surface yielding smaller-sized flakes and poor ratios.  The speed is the system and how brief the strongest lift remains overhead is also a concern.  For the forecast:

• Snow begins to break out between 3 AM and 5 AM tomorrow morning.  
• The heaviest of the snow falls between the hours of 9:00 AM and 1:00 PM.  
• The likelihood at this time appears for the heaviest banding to perhaps hit extreme western CT during these hours.  Within these hours snowfall rates could approach 3'' per hour, however, could even briefly approach 4'' per hour.  The key for getting upwards or exceeding 18'' of snow would be for these rates to persist for a good 3-4 hours.  
• Winds will also be quite strong as well throughout the state with winds sustained between 25-35 mph with gusts upwards of 60 mph.  This will not only lead to blowing and drifting snow but lead to isolated pockets of tree damage and power outages.
• The combination of heavy snow and strong winds will yield blizzard conditions at times as well.
• Given degree of lift, thunder can't be ruled out. 
• There is a concern for mixing of sleet or even changing to rain across the southeastern part of the state (in fact some computer forecast models hint that mixing may even occur into north-central CT) so totals may be held back here. 
• After the heaviest snow moves out we will continue to see light to periods of moderate snow through the remainder of the afternoon (mix/rain across southeastern CT)
• Coastal flooding is also possible across southwestern CT along Long Island Sound.