Overnight Saturday into Sunday Snow Potential (3/18-3/19/17)

Can a weather forecast ever be easy?  Unfortunately in this field this answer to this question is more than likely not.  What makes weather forecasting rather unique (along with fun and stressful at the same time) is it is an imperfect science.  This is something that the general public doesn't understand I think and why they question how forecasts can be so widely ranged between forecasters and why there is always uncertainty.  Anyways, with this little rant out of the way we are faced with quite another complex situation tomorrow.  Unfortunately, due to time constraints I don't have ample enough time to really get into great depth of detail to fully explain the situation.

An amplifying "strengthening" trough will be digging into the northeastern United States during the day tomorrow and in response an area of surface low pressure will form somewhere south of Long Island (where exactly is still in question):

The biggest question at this stage is where exactly does the surface low develop?  There are substantial differences between the NAM computer forecast model and the GFS forecast model as shown below:

Both these images are valid for 2:00 AM Sunday morning from this morning's (12z) runs of each model.  You can certainly see there are substantial differences here.  The NAM barely grazes the southern coast of CT while the GFS brings what would be moderate snows all the way to the CT/MA border.  For what it's worth the European model (which I can't show) is very south and gives CT virtually nothing with the exception of some flurries.

One thing that has to be watched is the potential for what is called a norlun trough.  Typically a trough is oriented from a northerly position to a southerly position (this includes northwest to southeast, northeast to southwest).  A norlun, however, is a trough which orients from the southeast to the northwest with the main surface low to the south (a rather vague description here but again on a time constraint).  If this feature does setup it could act to draw in stronger moisture to part of the state along with lift which could yield the potential for some higher totals.

For now this is my forecast but limited time to view data and such so confidence not all that high  Hopefully I'll have an opportunity to better look at things later on: