Friday Snow Update

Not much changes from my previous forecast with the exception of decreasing snowfall totals a bit across the northern third of the state and increasing totals across the southeastern part of the state.  The highest totals should be confined to the southern third of the state as computer forecast models are converging on the idea that the strongest upward vertical motions and subsequent area of heaviest snows will occur here.  This is shown by looking at projected 700mb vertical velocity values from both the latest runs of the NAM and GFS computer forecast models:

Looking at a bufkit profile over Waterbury, CT from the latest GFS and NAM runs also shows the intense lift which will be across the southern part of the state:

Looking at bufkit profile over Windsor Locks, CT we see some vast differences in the profile and these differences strongly indicate the northern part of the state will see much less in the way of snow.  Both the NAM and GFS advertise  a brief period of stronger upward vertical motion which suggest the window here for more moderate snow is very limited:

  What can we expect tomorrow:

• Light snows begin to break out between 12:00 AM and 2:00 AM
• The most likelihood period for moderate to heavy snows (especially southern CT) will be between 4:00 AM and 10:00 AM tomorrow morning.  During this time snow rates could approach 1.5''/hr.  Perhaps upwards of 2''/hr for a brief time in the heaviest of bands.  
• Expect numerous delays on the roads tomorrow morning given the timing.  Travel is not advised tomorrow morning unless absolutely necessary.  
• The snow will begin winding down between 11:00 AM and noon with some light snow showers around for a few hours after that.
• Once the system passes a strong cold front pushes through and we turn windier and much colder.  
• Winds could gust upwards of 35-45 mph which could cause isolated pockets of power outages. 

Below is my updated map: