What we are watching are two pieces of shortwave energy at the 500mb level. One piece of energy is associated with the northern branch of the jet stream and is modeled to be quite potent and the second piece of shortwave energy is associated with the southern branch of the jet stream. The million dollar question is whether or not there will be any interaction between these two pieces of energy (phasing) and if so, when does it happen and what effects are we looking at?
As of now I'm not completely sold we will see any significant impacts from this system and alot would have to change for that to happen. In the posted image below I have highlighted the two areas of energy which will be our focus. In the northern branch of the jet stream we have a very potent piece of shortwave energy with an associated closed-off 500mb low. These two combinations are not good for us here in southern New England if you're looking for big snows. Also, because of the strength of the shortwave energy this would make it very difficult for it to phase with the southern stream energy. This would be more likely to happen if the southern stream energy speeds up and gets out ahead of the northern branch energy. As it stand now this does not appear to happen and the northern energy virtually "kicks" this southern stream energy right out over the ocean. Some of the latest data, however, did speed up this southern energy a bit and, therefore, so more of an interaction and potential for something:
Taking a look at the GFS ensembles we can see why we can't completely rule out some sort of impact. While most of the members don't have much of anything, several do suggest the possibility of at least a moderate type of impact so while I don't think we will see anything major materialize I'm not ready to say no right now:
No comments:
Post a Comment