Thursday, February 9, 2017

Snow Forecast on Track

Our first significant winter storm of the season is upon us and already several inches of snow has accumulated across much of the state and we still have several hours of heavy snow to go through as the system continues to rapidly strengthen.  Given the latest trends and how things are unfolding this morning I have expanded my 14-18'' zone and have also included some text stating that locally some spots could pick up as much as 18-24'' of snow:


Mesoanalysis data shows a prime track of the system for heavy banding to setup across much of CT.  The tracks of the surface low, 925mb low, and 850mb low will be just to the southeast of CT which will allow the strongest low-level convergence and upper level divergence to be right over CT.  Also, the lows will be strengthening as they pass to the southeast of CT:


With the track and development of the lows along with a very tight temperature gradient (this isn't shown) this is setting up some exceptional lift which will transpire over CT.  As this lift continues to increase we will see snowfall rates approach 2-3'' per hour and perhaps even as much as 4'' per hour, especially in any areas of thundersnow:


Heavy snow will continue until 1:00 PM-2:00 PM beore beginning to taper off.  Strong winds will continue as well, perhaps gusting to near 50 mph which could lead to isolated power outages.

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