I did a much more in depth scientific post earlier today so will refine from all that fun stuff here (the link to that post if interested is http://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2017/02/thursday-snowstorm-looking-more-likely.html) I will post a few bufkit profile soundings using Waterbury, CT too illustrate. Both the latest NAM and GFS computer forecast models are showing a several hour period of excellent snowgrowth with great lift penetrating this snowgrowth zone. This will yield a several hour window where snowfall rates could approach 3'' hour at times:
In addition to moderate to heavy snowfall we will have to deal with strong winds as well. Winds could become sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts potentially up to 50 mph across the state. This could yield to pockets of isolated power outages. Light snows should begin to break out during the overnight hours Wednesday (perhaps as early as 3-4 AM) and the intensity could quickly pick. During this time we will see a several hour period of extremely heavy snows where rates could approach 3'' per hour. After about 11 AM-noon the rates should begin to taper off and much of the accumulations will be done.
As for snowfall totals this map will have to be fined tune tomorrow evening. The axis of heaviest snowfall will occur where the deformation snow band sets up and this is very difficult to forecast up until the event is pretty much starting. With this deformation band means there will also be a zone of subsidence (sinking air which greatly reduces precipitation...in this case snow). This would likely mean a zone of much lower snowfall totals. As for now this is what I'm thinking: (Again...this will be fined tune tomorrow evening to reflect totals where highest banding may set up and areas which may receive less snow due to subsidence)
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