Friday, April 17, 2020 into Saturday, April 18, 2020 Snow Event

Well...welcome to winter I guess. Computer forecast models for the past few days have been rather consistent in a fast moving weather system producing a narrow swath of moderate snow across parts of New England. There have been uncertainties, however, regarding where this band of snow traverses, but computer forecast models seem to be converging on a more likely solution.

A vigorous piece of shortwave energy is expected to amplify (strengthen) as it moves through the Northeast. This will help promote the strengthening of a surface low pressure as it passes just south of southern New England. Forecast models indicate a swath of rather impressive upward vertical motion will traverse southern New England overnight Friday into Saturday morning. This will result in moderate (perhaps even heavy) precipitation...which will likely be snow:

Friday morning's bufkit run of the NAM forecast model at Windsor Locks, CT shows a period Friday night of moderate lift extending into the dendritc snow growth zone with plenty of available moisture (not shown). This indicates there will be a period of moderate-to-heavy snow across the northern part of the state overnight Friday into Saturday morning:

Both the NAM and European computer forecast models indicate a thermal profile across northern CT which will be just supportive of snow. Looking at a forecast sounding for Windsor Locks, CT on the NAM notice the green line (dewpoint) and red line (temperature) are hugging the 32 line. This constant temperature through the lowest 5,000 feet of the atmosphere will result in what's called to an isothermal snow bomb...a several hour period of moderate-to-heavy snow which will be wet and heavy:

What to expect:

• Snow may start out as some rain but will quickly change to snow (away from the shoreline) with precipitation beginning between 7:00 PM and 10:00 PM EDT. 
• Heaviest rates between 12:00 AM and 5:00 AM EDT Saturday morning with snowfall rates 1'' to 1.5'' per hour.
• Snow will be heavy and wet. Due to weakened state of trees, tree limbs, and power poles from the wind storm this may result in isolated-to-scattered power outages. 
• Snow ends by 8:00 AM Saturday morning with some residual snow showers through mid-morning.
• Melting happens also immediately as temperatures warm into the 40's. 

Below, is my snow map: