Updated CT snowfall Forecast: Sunday, March 3rd, 2019

It has been an extremely rough (downright embarrassing) past 48-hours in terms of my snowfall forecasts. I've taken some time to really explore what I had done wrong and the good news is (with help from some fellow meteorologists) I have figured out what I did (perhaps I will throw together a separate post for this).

Anyways...computer forecast models continue to become rather impressive for tonight into Monday morning suggesting some very heavy snowfall in a short-period of time. Snowfall rates of 2-3'' per hour are becoming increasingly likely.

The Hi-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecast model continues to really ramp up the snow totals for tonight and this is due to some very strong upward vertical motion penetrating the snow growth zone. Below is a snap shot of the HRRR for Windsor Locks, CT showing 30 units of omega within the snow growth zone (the purple and yellow contours). This is indicative of very intense upward vertical motion and with sufficient moisture this will yield extremely heavy snow (potentially 2-3'' per hour. As a note, other forecast guidance is along the same lines of thinking:

The latest run of the NAM forecast model shows very intense 700mb frontogenesis traversing CT with very intense 850mb frontogenesis just south of the state. Frontogenesis is a term which defines rapid changes in the horizontal temperature gradient over time. The greater the gradient, the more intense the upward vertical motion and the heavier the precipitation (so long sufficient moisture is present):

Forecast sounding from a location in CT shows incredibly lift with a sounding indicative of heavy snowfall:

Based on the latest trends within the forecast models, current radar, and mesoanalysis data it's time to take em up. There may even be some localized amounts up to 14'' if the trends continue.

Heaviest snow falls in the 11:00 PM to 5:00 AM window.