Thursday, January 4, 2018

2nd Snowfall Forecast Update...Time to Increase Totals More

Well I'm going to feel like an idiot after making ANOTHER update within hours. I should have waited for the newer model data to arrive and used that along with mesosnalysis data before making an update. The science and meteorology behind the reasoning is still the same as the last post:

http://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2018/01/snowfall-forecast-update.html

but the snowfall totals can be fined tune more.

As the radar evolves we are beginning to see what I discussed the past few days, with precipitation becoming more band-like. This is yielding bands of extremely heavy snowfall with incredible snowfall rates and in between these bands we have zones of subsidence. It's beginning to look like we will see a main band set right up through central CT with a zone of subsidence southeast of this band and then another heavier band followed by another zone of subsidence. These zones will move off to the northwest. So what will happen if areas under the banding will see a period of extremely heavy snow with blizzard and white out conditions then the subsidence zone will work in and snowfall rates and intensity will be reduced. Then more banding moves overhead. As the storm further begins to take shape, we will see this stuff pivot, when this happens we will see heavy banding sit right over central CT leading to highest snowfall totals here. Based on observations from across the state, latest model data, and mesosnalysis data this is my adjusted map. Again, I should have waited before making an earlier update but as explain this week, this was going to be a nowcasting situation and updates would have to come as things were evolving:



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