Snowfall Forecast Update.

The consensus continues to strengthen for a significant winter storm to impact the state of CT beginning very late overnight and lasting through the first part of tomorrow.  There is no doubt this will be the biggest snow event of the 2016-2017 season thus far.  As we zero in on the event, our computer forecast models are beginning to zero in on where perhaps the axis of heaviest snowfall will occur and within this axis we could be looking at some very hefty snowfall totals, even despite the rather fast speed of the system.

We are looking at a several hour period of explosive lift tomorrow and indications are that some of the most intense lift and heaviest banding will setup somewhere over CT and thus CT could receive some of the highest totals within the event.  Latest GFS computer forecast is showing exceptional lift crossing over the state tomorrow indicated by the 900-500mb vertically averaged frontogeneis map below.  The black and gray shadings are showing phenomenal lift and forcing in which snowfall rates could approach 3-4'' per hour along with thunder and lightning:

The latest NAM and GFS computer forecast bufkit profiles (using Waterbury, CT as location) also show exceptional upward vertical motion penetrating the snow growth zone which only verifies the potential for snowfall rates approaching 3-4'' per hour.  There is something of interest to note, however, on the NAM profile.  The NAM has an area of blue contours in the lower portion of the atmosphere which is indicative of sinking motion or subsidence.  Given the degree of exceptional lift and forcing which will yield to a very potent band of snow, its quite likely there will be an area of subsidence which means there will be a zone where snowfall totals come in much lower than the forecast map will indicate...this is the nature with these types of storms and is very difficult to forecast:

What to expect:

• Snow begins between 3 AM and 5 AM with the intensities quickly picking up.
• Heaviest snows fall between 6 AM and noon.  This is when snowfall rates could approach 3-4'' per hour along with the potential for thunder and lightning.  If thunder/lightning occurs this could yield snowfall rates locally approaching 5'' per hour.  
• In addition to extremely heavy snow making for near zero visibility, winds will be quite strong as well with winds between 20-30 mph and gusts potentially upwards of 45-50 mph.  This will allow for blowing and drifting snow along with the potential for isolated power outages.  
• After noon the heaviest snow will wind down and we will be left with leftover snow showers throughout the remainder of the afternoon.
• Travel will be extremely treacherous and is not advised during the storm unless it is absolutely necessary.  
• Below is what I'm expecting...keep in mind that zone of highest totals will be for wherever the heaviest banding sets-up...this could shift tomorrow depending on several feature  

Below is what I'm thinking: