Sunday, December 4, 2016

Wintry Commute Monday AM

Prepare for a rather slow commute Monday morning as a quick hitting storm system produces some snow, sleet, and some rain.  While we aren't looking at any big snow totals (outside of the typical NW Hill spots which could get 2-4'') the timing of the snow will make for a rather slow AM commute so expect numerous delays.

Both the NAM/GFS computer forecast models show a piece of shortwave energy moving through southern New England early tomorrow morning accompanied by a decent surge of moisture.  Both models sort of differ with respect to timing and structure of the energy, however, they are in great agreement of track/placement yielding high confidence for tomorrow morning's precipitation mess:


Taking a look at 700mb relative humidity values they are projected to be around 100% tomorrow morning, a strong indication there will be plenty of moisture available and the airmass will be saturated (other levels aren't shown but the surface and lower levels of the atmosphere will be saturated as well):

With plenty of moisture available the next question is with regards to both lift and strength of lifting.  With 500mb shortwave energy moving overhead this will produce a good degree of lift but computer forecast models are also showing a decent surge of lift at the 700mb, 850mb, and 950mb levels.  There will also be some added lift from the nose of a rather strong 500mb jet.  As this strong area of lift moves over the area we will see a period of moderate to perhaps even heavy snow, especially across inland CT.  However, since the system will be a quick mover, the longevity of the snow will be rather brief, thus not much in the way of accumulations.  Across central/southern CT, some warmer air may begin to move in both at the surface and around 2000-3000ft in the atmosphere, with this some areas will see a transition from snow over to sleet and perhaps even rain.  This will also reduce snowfall totals for these locations:



Unfortunately i don't have my pain program so had to use regular paint to make my map but below is what I am thinking for snowfall:


No comments:

Post a Comment