Friday, December 13, 2013

Updated snowfall forecast for southern New England

Given the latest trends in the computer forecast models during the overnight period, snowfall totals have been increased slightly, although hesitantly.  A few negative factors for higher end totals is 1) The speed of the storm 2) The duration of the heaviest snowfall rates and 3) No real established mid-level circulation.  However, computer forecast models are continuing to indicate a tremendous amount of atmospheric lift coupled with a very saturated atmosphere and excellent snowgrowth, at least until some warmer air begins to work in aloft.  During the height of the storm, we could see snowfall rates exceed 2'' per hour at times, thus making some of the higher end totals quite possible.  Given the computer forecast models are projecting the strongest lift to occur across portions of extreme NE CT/ NW RI/portions of interior eastern MA, this is where the highest snowfall totals are expected.  
What to Expect
  • Light snows to being breaking out, possibly as early as 2-3 PM
  • Heaviest snowfall expected to occur between about 7-8 PM and 3-4 AM.  
  • Snowfall rates at the height of the storm may approach 2'' per hour for a period
  • Coastal areas will experience a mix/changeover to sleet keeping snowfall totals down across these areas
  • As the storm winds down, many may see a period of mixing with sleet or changing over to sleet with the exception of western MA and extreme NW CT
  • Storm is gone early AM Sunday with light snows lingering across NE MA until late morning

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