Friday, February 8, 2013

Updated Snowfall Map for Historic Blizzard 2/8-2/9/13

Snowfall has already began across much of the region and conditions will rapidly deteriorate as me move through the afternoon and into the evening hours.  Now that we are in "now-casting" mode, which basically means we toss the models aside (with the exception of the rapid-refresh models) and just watch how the storm unfolds, we can start pinpointing where the axis of heavier snowfall will setup.

Given with what we know and what we see it appears that the axis of heaviest snowfall will setup across northeastern and eastern MA and this area looks to get crushed.  We can expect the deformation band (band of heaviest snowfall) to setup across this area later this afternoon/evening and perhaps just sit over this area for at least 4-6 hours.  During this band snowfall rates will approach 4''/HR along with thunder/lighting.

Now we still have to closely watch the exact track the system takes b/c any wobbles left or right could impact where that axis of heavier banding sets-up.  We also have to watch any jobs to the east b/c if we see any jogs to the east snowfall totals across far western zones will end up being on the lesser side than forecasted.

Let's just break this down one last time on what to expect:

  • Snowfall region wide of 1 to 3 feet (with a few spots perhaps nearing 40'', especially in eastern MA)
  • Thunder/Lightning with the heaviest bands
  • Strong/Damaging Winds late this afternoon and through the overnight.  Sustained winds across far eastern MA/Cape of 45-60 mph with gusts 70-80 mph.  Elsewhere winds sustained 35-50 mph with gusts 55-60 mph.  
  • Widespread power outages across much of eastern MA/RI and working into eastern CT but becoming more scattered as you work west.  
  • Major coastal flooding along the east facing shores of eastern MA/RI

Below is updated snowfall map:

Below is wind map:

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