Monday, November 26, 2012

Tuesday, November 27th, 2012 light snowfall event

A weak wave or perhaps multiple weak waves of energy will ride along a boundary just to our south throughout the day on Tuesday extending into early Wednesday.  While some computer models eventually develop these waves into a somewhat unorganized but juicy storm, the weather pattern for this "cyclogenesis" (development/deepening of a low pressure system) to occur close to the coast is not favorable, therefore, these waves will remain weak.

Several computer models are showing some decent moisture being associated with these waves (at least decent enough to lead to the production of snow) as well as lift just strong enough to lead to the development of precipitation, and given the thermal temperature profiles of the atmosphere we should be looking at mainly snow, though areas along the coast may have to deal with some mixing.

While one of the more reliable computer models shows very little, if any precipitation making it into the region, several other computer models are in agreement that we will see a period of light snow spreading into the region.  However, given the one more reliable computer model keeping everything offshore leads me to feel that I wouldn't not be surprised if many of us nothing more than flurries.

Given this, the best shot at "accumulating" snow will be well to the south and east of the MA Pike and any accumulations should generally remain around an inch or so with a few locations perhaps picking up 2-3'', especially if we see some heavier bands work in.  Since this system will be occurring more in the daytime with the sun angle not quite at it's lowest yet, surface temperatures may warm up into the mid-30's.  This should really help to prevent much in the way of accumulations of non-grassy surfaces, especially considering the snowfall intensity will not be all that heavy.  If we were dealing with higher intensity snowfalls these mid-30's surface temps would not be an issue.

Snowfall should begin during the morning hours of Tuesday and virtually go on and off throughout the entire day and lasting into the overnight hours with perhaps a few flurries leftover very early Wednesday AM.

Below is the forecast map:

 


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