After the mid-December snow event, winter has been a zzzzzzzzzz fest in the snowfall department and in the cold department for that matter. While it may not seem like it, the overall pattern hasn't been all that terrible, however, a few nuisances; particularly with the state of the Pacific have prevent us from cashing in on the pattern. We have also seen a more southern stream dominant pattern which well...sometimes works and sometimes doesn't. However, moving into the third week of January, we will be dealing with northern stream energy and these can offer up clipper systems and sometimes these clipper systems produce...so will this one? Let's take a look!
A textbook rex block pattern will evolve across the west coast at the beginning of the week with a cutoff low pressure across the Southwest (or just off the Southwest coast) with high pressure building into the Pacific-Northwest region. This results in the jet stream splitting into two across the western United States with the two pieces finding love again across the eastern United States:
Within this pattern, there are two key features to focus on for the clipper potential. Shortwave energy digging in from southeast Canada within the fast-moving northern stream and shortwave energy across the southwestern United States:
If that shortwave energy across the Southwest remains more off the west coast (or even weakens more rapidly than forecast) this will provide further room for the northern stream energy to amplify as it digs into New England. Should this amplify enough with the main piece of energy passing south of Long Island, this would promote a high likelihood for a rapidly strengthening system with a rapidly blossoming precipitation field. Given there will be sufficient cold air available, this precipitation would be in the form of snow!
Should this northern stream energy amplify enough to strengthen, we could see a light-to-moderate snowfall event unfold Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Accumulations would certainly be possible. What kinds of accumulations would be looking at? Too early to tell, however, something certainly just getting into plowable territory would be in the cards.
This is still several days out, however, that potential looms and for those starving for snow, we hold onto any hope we can get in these dire times.
Happy Snow Watching!
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