Significant Snowstorm to Impact Connecticut to Start February

 There continue to be signals for a significant and long-duration winter storm to impact Connecticut as we begin the month of February. While all the pieces are there, a lot has to play out correctly for this to happen. I am on the aggressive side with this forecast, however, I feel quite confident these pieces will evolve in such a way that a band of very heavy snow traverses the state. Should this system materialize just a bit quicker, more of the state could get into even heavier snows. Why am I so aggressive? I'll explain below. Note: Just because I'm using graphics from a particular forecast model does not mean I am basing my forecast off that model. I am just using the graphics for illustrative purposes. 

Baroclinic Zone:

I am very impressed with the temperature gradient in the lower-levels of the atmosphere which will be in place across New England. Choosing the 850mb level (~5,000 feet above the ground) too illustrate, temperatures in the warm sector may as as warm as +7C. Meanwhile, temperatures at the same level across interior New England may be as cold as -6C to -7C. Also note the very strong easterly winds in the warm sector (the flags indicate 50+ knots of wind feeding into the storm). This will provide sufficient moisture into the storm. This is all even more impressive if we were to look down around 2,500 feet (925mb). This favors very strong lift (upward vertical motion) across the region.

Forecast models indicate the 700mb low closing off south of Connecticut with the low tracking to our south and east. There are uncertainties regarding the exact evolution of this feature which poses some challenges to the overall forecast. As modeled, this might be a bit farther south than I would like for heavy snow into Connecticut, however, given this low does not become very tightly compacted (the more "rings" or circles" the more compacted and tightly closed it is) and is more elongated indicates to me that the band of heaviest snow would actually be displaced farther northwest than usual. That would place this band over Connecticut:

In terms of how much liquid will fall (this can be a huge assistance when forecasting snow totals), forecast models generally are not very impressive here in Connecticut as they keep the heaviest south and east of the state. I feel very strongly that this is underdone based on analysis of the setup. I feel based on the degree of warm inflow into the very cold air mass that will be in place combined with the strong baroclinic zone and favorable region-wide large-scale lift, we will certainly see a band of heavy snow traverse the state.

Here is a breakdown of my thoughts:

• Snow begins during the overnight Sunday into Monday morning. 
• Snow intensities begin to increase rapidly thorough Monday morning (especially the southern part of the state) with conditions deteriorating rapidly. 
• Winds begin to increase out of the northeast or north-northeast and may gusts between 40-50 mph during the height of the storm. This may lead to blizzard-like conditions at times along with potential for drifting snow and isolated power outages. 
• The heaviest of the snow falls from late Monday afternoon through early overnight Monday. Light snow may even stick around through the first half of Tuesday. 
• Snowfall rates during the peak range between 1 to 2 inches per hour. 
• Monday late afternoon and evening commute will be extremely difficult due to heavy snow and snow covered roads. Given how cold it is the snow will stick rapidly and easily. 
• There are some wildcards to consider, including the potential for dry air to filter in the lower-levels from the north. This could put a major wrench in totals.
• Below is my initial forecast: