With the graphic on the left there is an amplifying (strengthening) trough digging into New England and associated with that is a vigorous piece of shortwave energy which will provide a source for some very intense lift. As the shortwave approaches, we will also see a fairly decent mid-level jet approach the area as well from the southeast placing us in the right entrance region of a 60 knot mid-level jet streak. This will also work to enhance lift as the system works through:
Another impressive aspect of this system will be the steepening of the mid-level lapse rates (temperature change with height). With strong cold air advection occurring in the mid-levels of the atmosphere mid-level lapse rates are forecasted to increase to 6.5 C/KM to 7 C/KM! In fact, overnight Saturday into Sunday they are forecasted to increase to as much as 8 C/KM!! That is pretty impressive for this area:
The big question is whether or not we will have enough moisture for the system to work with? the GFS suggests dewpoints will increase into the mid to perhaps upper 40's which should provide enough moisture for this system to work with.
So what can we expect? As the shortwave approaches we may see an increased risk for some showers (perhaps heavy at times) and given the presence of steep lapse rates enhancing mid-level instability we can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm as well. Given cold temperatures around 5,000ft, Some grauple could be possible as well along with some strong wind gusts.
No comments:
Post a Comment