Early Winter Talk...Any Cold On the Horizon?

I'm hoping to be able to sit down and actually put forth a long-range outlook for the upcoming winter, however, due to my schedule that may not be able to happen.  Anyways, when composing long-range forecasts there are a slew of variables and atmospheric/oceanic oscillations that must be looked at.  Some winters (such as last winter when we were dealing with a super strong El Nino) are easier to make a long-range forecast for, however, other winters (in fact probably most) aren't very easy.  This is just due to the fact that many of the oscillations looked at aren't very constant and we don't yet (although our understanding of them is becoming much greater) have a full grasp about how they evolve and what causes them to evolve. 

Anyways, when dealing with this winter and what we can expect here in New England one of the biggest keys which could determine how warm or cold of a winter we have overall and how snowy of a winter we have may very well come down to what happens with this area of low pressure which has become established near the Gulf of Alaska:

If you're hoping for cold and a pattern which favors snow here in New England (especially southern New England) this isn't the best of looks at the 500mb level.  Within the highlighted box we have an area of below-average heights (indicating area of low pressure) and those deep blue colors indicate this is a very strong area of low pressure.  This feature is helping to enhance major ridging across much of the United States (indicated by the red shadings across the country).  This posted image is from today's run of one of our computer forecast models (GFS) for about 5-days out.  What this indicates is we will likely see a period of extreme warmth across much of the country and record highs should fly. 

There is some uncertainties though with what happens to this feature moving forward.  Some computer forecast guidance indicates this area of low pressure will sort of weaken which would reduce the ridging over the United States.  However, at the same time some guidance suggests while this will weaken it will just be replaced by yet another area of low pressure and we would yet again see more ridging develop across the country. 

So what is the significance moving into winter?  While this is NOT a forecast we do have to watch this over the next month.  If this pattern remains constant where we see these deep areas of low pressure remain persistent and strong in and near the Gulf of Alaska, cold shots and snow opportunities may be hard to come by here in New England.  What we want to see is this feature either remain quite weak, retrograde up towards the Bering Sea, or just reverse totally and have high pressure become persistent in this area. 

It is still very early and there are some good signals in place if you're a cold and/or snow lover in New England but we do have work to get there.  Stay Tuned!