For the past week, computer forecast models have been suggestive of the potential for a rather potent coastal storm to develop and perhaps impact southern New England. While there has been disagreement (and there continues to be some) as far as exact track and strength, virtually all guidance has said there will be at least a storm.
At this time we're still dealing with a bit of uncertainty within the computer forecast models. Some models such as the European forecast model is very aggressive and suggestive of a major snowstorm for the region, certainly the biggest for most locations of this season. Other computer forecast models such as the American GFS forecast model aren't as aggressive and is suggestive of a much weaker snow event but still potentially producing several inches for some. Over the next 24-36 hours these details will begin to become much more clear. There also exists a bit of uncertainty with regards to the timing of snow with the GFS much faster (breaking out snow by mid to late Sunday AM) and the Euro much slower (breaking out precipitation much later on Sunday).
Let's take a look at some 500mb graphics from both the GFS and European forecast models:
The below graphic is showing the projected 500mb pattern along with sea-level pressure from the 3/17/2016 12z run of the European model. What we see is ridging out in the west with a trough digging into the eastern United States. This is a very good look if you're hoping for a storm to track along or just off the coast. Also note the VERY intense storm just off Cape Cod!!! If this solution verified we would be looking at the potential for several inches to perhaps upwards of a foot-plus across some locations!
The below graphic is showing the projected 500mb pattern with vorticity during the evening on Sunday from the GFS forecast model. Like the Euro, both models are showing ridging out west with troughing into the east. However, the GFS doesn't have as significant as a storm as you can see below: (Note: if you look back at the Euro graphic you can see the Euro is showing a 978mb low east of Cape Cod while the GFS is 992mb...quite the difference!
As you can see there is still some spread involved with the exact strength of this system which isn't really unusual at this range, however, hopefully with tonight's set of model runs the models start coming to an agreement.
While we are getting closer to the short-range aspect of forecasting, we are still at the range where computer ensemble members can be very useful (ensembles are composed of different model members, each advertising a potential solution and the ensembles also take the mean (or average) of the solutions and this can be very useful in the medium range when determining storm potential. Today's 12z GFS emsembles clearly show that the potential for a storm is certainly high and the possibility of a track east enough for all snow is quite high as well:
While its still too early to get into further details and specifics as star/end times and potential snowfall amounts, what we can derive at this juncture is that the potential for a rather significant storm is increasing and it appears that many may see their biggest snowfall accumulations of the season. In addition to the potential of snowfall we may also deal with the possibility of strong winds and even some coastal flooding. The snow may be on the wet/heavy side as well so tree damage and power outages would be possible as well, especially if we see strong winds.
The potential will continue to be monitored quite closely and further updates will be provided as needed.
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