Stormy Friday Followed by Arctic Cold/Snow Potential

By this point I'm sure everyone (or mostly everyone) is ready to turn the page on winter 2015-2016 and make the full transition to spring and spring-like weather.  With the calendar set to change to the month of April you would think this transition is well underway.  Well unfortunately mother nature has different plans as our weather pattern is set to go under a significant change and we will see a return to much colder weather (perhaps even some record cold) and even the threat for snow...yes snow.  These changes will begin on Friday.

An amplifying trough will begin to dig into the central United States over the next day and an associated area of low pressure will track well to our northwest.  With the trough digging into the central United States first this is allowing for some ridging to build here in the Northeast.  As we move into Thursday and Friday, the area of low pressure tracking to our northwest will allow for a warm front to pass through the region ushering in even warmer and more moist air.  For Thursday and Friday we are looking at temperatures pushing well into the 60's and perhaps even near 70F on Thursday in some spots!  By Friday dewpoints should be well into the 50's.  The graphic below is from Wednesday's morning run of the GFS forecast model looking at the 850mb (~5,000ft ASL) level.  The darker blues and purple shadings indicate much colder temperatures associated with the amplifying trough while the brighter green and yellow shadings indicate warmer temperatures at this level associated with ridging:

As the strong cold front progresses into the region on Friday it will encounter a modestly unstable airmass thanks to temperatures well into the 60's, dewpoint temperatures well into the 50's, and the potential for some steeper mid-level lapse rates to work into the region as well:

In addition to the potential for some modest instability, winds aloft will also be rather strong across the region in association with the approaching trough.  In fact, by early afternoon the nose of a rather strong 500mb mid-level jet is expected to push into the region (note the edge of those "red" shadings just to our west).  As this happens this will really enhance lift across the region ahead of the cold front.  Although not shown, it also appears the region may end up in the right front quadrant of a potent upper-level jet streak which would also enhance lift:

The combination of modest instability and strong wind shear ahead of the cold front will not only yield showers and heavier downpours (given presence of strong moisture) but we also may see a line of thunderstorms develop ahead of the cold front which could have the potential to produce strong wind gusts and perhaps even some small hail!

Now onto the passage of the cold front.  Once this Arctic front passes we will see a return to MUCH colder temperatures.  Ending the weekend and into the first part of next week we will see high temperatures from the upper 30's to lower 40's, brisk winds at times (especially Friday night/Saturday), low temperatures down into the teens and 20's and yes even some snow showers possible at times.  In fact, we will be watching the potential around Tuesday-ish for a potentially bigger snow threat.

As we move into April it will feel more like December as the developing weather pattern will allow for Arctic air straight from the Arctic to drain into the Northeast.  After Wednesday or so of next week we do moderate some, however, there doesn't appear to be any prolonged warmth through the first 10-14 days of April at least.

The image below also from this morning's GFS run shows 850mb temperatures over the region Sunday evening.  This is pretty chilly stuff for this time of year!