Snow surprise! Accumulating Snow expected Friday, February 5th, 2016

Over the past couple of days computer forecast models have been insisting that an area of low pressure which develops along a cold front stalled to our south and east will track far enough to the west to bring precipitation, including snowfall into portions of southern New England.  Well over the past 12 hours or so, computer forecast models have really come further west and now we are looking at the potential for accumulating snows as far back as western CT.

The following graphic is looking at the 500mb level and 500mb vorticity.  What we are looking at is a very potent piece of shortwave energy traversing through the 500mb level.  This very strong piece of energy will be responsible for the continued development and strengthening of a surface low pressure along with low pressure centers developing at the 925mb and 850mb levels:

One of the computer forecast models, the GFS model has been quite aggressive with precipitation and lift across our area.  However, several other computer forecast models have also been either similar to the GFS or trending towards the GFS.  Below is an image from the latest 18z run of the GFS showing vertical velocity at 700mb.  The brighter colors indicate very strong and rather intense lifting.  We should see a period of very strong lift push through CT and help enhance snowfall intensity:

As far as impacts go, expect a very traitorous Friday morning commute given the timing of the snowfall with snowfall breaking out either overnight Thursday or very early AM Friday and continuing through the early to mid afternoon.  Expect poor driving conditions along with numerous delays.  Below is my snowfall forecast: