Monday, February 8th, 2016 CT snow map/discussion

Our active weather pattern continues as more snow is targeted for the state of CT as we begin a brand new work week.  However, unlike Friday where some spots saw some pretty impressive snowfall amounts (as much as 6-12''!!) this system likely won't match those totals, however, there will be some impacts to travel.  While we are about 12-15 hours away from the onset of snowfall there is still a little bit of uncertainty with exactly how far west the storm tracks and where the strongest lift traverses over.  This will ultimately determine how much snow we receive and where the highest totals occur.  With this said, I believe the storm will end up tracking a bit too far east for CT to really get into the heaviest snows, especially for any prolonged period of time.  I do believe many areas (especially the further east you are in the state) will see at least a brief period of moderate to heavy snow.

With the following graphics below we can sort of see where some of the uncertainty comes from.  The following images are a bufkit profile for over Windsor Locks, CT from both the American GFS (top graphic) and NAM (bottom graphic) computer forecast models.  The area highlighted in purple is the best snowgrowth zone.  This is indicated by the purple and yellow contours.  The area highlighted in orane is vertical velocities with the red contours indicated upward motion (great for generating precipitation!).  The more contours you have, the stronger the lift!  You want these contours to run right through the best snowgrowth zone.  If you look at the difference between the GFS and NAM you see the GFS has a -10 contour while the NAM only has a -5 contour run through this zone.  This is indicating that the GFS is forecasting stronger lift than the NAM which would result in a period of heavier snowfall and perhaps higher totals.  Other sounding locations across CT yield similar looks.  This right here is the reason for the bit of uncertainty.

Looking past this uncertainty, this is not a very long duration storm system, however, we will see on and off snow-showers through Wednesday thanks to the upper-level trough which will be associated with this coastal storm.  Given how this is not long-duration, this is another reason why totals should not be all that significant.

Early morning rush hour traffic should not be terrible as the snow may not really break out until the mid-morning hours, although light snows could break out as early as 7-8 AM.  As the morning progresses, snow rates will vary between light to moderate and perhaps even briefly heavy at times reducing visibility.  Snow should taper off by the late afternoon hours so any impacts to the evening commute should be confined to wet roadways beginning to ice over.

Below is what I am expecting: