Update on today's severe potential

Forecasting severe weather across New England can be quite challenging at times...in fact it can be challenging most of the time.  There are just so many mesoscale factors and features that need to come together perfectly and you really need to just watch things evolve pretty much as they are.  This situation is no different.

For the past few days computer forecast guidance has really been hammering the potential for a significant severe weather event to occur across portions of New England with the potential for widespread damaging winds, large hail, and even a few tornadoes all possible.  They key to realizing the highest potential is to get all the main ingredients to fall in place at the same time.

While all these hazards are still on the table, as the morning progresses confidence has decreased a bit and confidence is on the lower side as to exactly what will happen today and exactly how big the event will be.

Currently there is a large complex of t'storms just to the west of New England called a mesoscale convective complex (MCS) that is racing towards CT/MA/VT/NH.  This complex is associated with a great deal of cloud debris and if this complex does not fall apart quickly that could vastly reduce the degree of solar heating we achieve today which means less in the way of instability.  It could also mean for an earlier show of action which also means less instability and less potential for a major severe weather event.

While some early indications projected areas along and north of the MA Pike for the highest severe weather potential, this area may have shifted southward to the MA Pike including interior NE MA, and down into northern CT and northwestern RI.

Here are a few scenarios which are still on the table for today

1)  If the complex of t'storms to the west erodes soon and clouds begin to break up this would allow stronger surface heating to occur over New England.  Given the atmospheric environment that will be in place, this scenario would be the most likely to produce a major severe weather event with damaging winds which could be as strong as 70 mph in the strongest storms, large hail of golf ball or even bigger in the strongest storms, and perhaps even a few tornadoes.  In this scenario a strong tornado couldn't be ruled out somewhere.

2)  If the complex of t'storms to the west does not weaken much and thicker cloud cover remains, the degree of surface heating will be much lessened across New England and the degree of instability will be much less.  This will mean a reduced threat for a major severe weather event and while some strong to severe t'storms will still be possible the threat would be much more isolated.  Some pockets of damaging winds would be possible, along with hail up to quarters, and still perhaps a tornado.

3) The MCS weakens as it moves into New England but comes through prior to peak heating.  In this scenario the severe threat is vastly reduce.  A few strong gusts perhaps knocking down weakened trees would be possible and small hail.  The threat for a tornado would be very small.

At this juncture the next few hours are very crucial and all we can do is watch current radar and satellite trends along with latest hourly computer data observations and go from there.  It's important to keep an eye and ear to the skies along with all the latest forecasts and updates.