Noon severe weather update

Showers and some embedded thunderstorms pushed through portions of New England this morning, particularly along and north of Windsor Locks, CT.  While clouds are still in place, satellite trends have been breaking up the clouds west of southern New England and the sun has been in and out.  Given recent satellite trends, more and more breaks of sun should occur across much of MA and south into CT and RI.  

The combination of steep mid-level lapse rates, in excess of 6.5 C/KM, rich low-level moisture characterized by dewpoints climbing into the lower 70's, and surface temps rising into the 80's will all lead to quite an unstable airmass this afternoon.  It's still a bit unclear as to how unstable we become due to the presence of clouds but some areas could end up with over 1500-2500 J/KG of Cape...which would be quite significant given the degree of wind shear aloft.  

Some of the latest computer forecast models, more particularly the higher resolution models, develop what appears to be a broken line of supercells moving through MA and CT later this afternoon.  At this time the potential for severe weather is still certainly in place along with the possibility for some significant severe weather including damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph, hail as large as golf balls, and a few isolated tornadoes.  A strong tornado can't be ruled out either.  

The best timeframe appears to be between 2-6 PM (as late as 8 PM for RI and SE MA if activity sustains) for strong to severe t'storms capable of the hazards described above.  

The situation will continue being monitored with updates provided as needed.  

Below is the latest satellite image from noon showing breaks of clouds moving east: