Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Quick snowfall update
After looking at things this AM I probably should have stuck with my original snowfall call. Given that, here is the original snowfall map with some slight additions, mainly to add an area where some locally higher amounts may occur to due heavier banding.
Monday, November 26, 2012
Updated snowfall forecast for 11/27/12...looks like more snow
Yet another touch and complex snowfall forecast for our region as latest computer model guidance has trended stronger with the developing wave of low pressure tomorrow which will be sliding just to the south of our region. With computer forecast models now deepening and strengthening the system quicker and closer to the coast, this will allow for more in the way of moisture and stronger lift to at least work into a portion of the region. Given this it does appear some of the snowfall totals from the previous forecast will have to be bumped up a bit.
The highest uncertainty with this forecast will be out across eastern MA. Computer forecast models have have the combination of strongest lift and highest moisture over this area, however, signals of an inverted trough setting up across SE MA could actually allow for warmer marine air to contaminate the lowest 2000' of the atmosphere giving this area more in the way of rain or a mix of rain/snow, cutting down snowfall totals. On the western side of this boundary is where the highest snowfall totals are going to occur as on the western side these locations will still be under the strongest lift/highest moisture and will also be cold enough to support all or mainly all snow. The million dollar question (and is always the million dollar question) is where this boundary, known as the "coastal front" sets up.
Snowfall should begin breaking out in the early to mid morning hours and start off light in intensity. In fact, for much of the storm's duration the intensity will only range from light to moderate, with the exception being some areas from SE CT into RI and interior SE MA where stronger lift aloft will allow for more periods of higher intensity snows (possibly in the range of 1'' to 1.5'' per hour). Snow will be ongoing throughout much of the afternoon and overnight periods when the system will finally begin to wind down as it moves off to the north and east. Some leftover flurries are still possible on Wednesday, especially across eastern southern New England.
Areas along the RI/SE MA coast will also experience a mix of rain/snow, especially during the afternoon hours when temperatures in the lowest 1000-1500' of the atmosphere are a touch on the warm side and especially when the precip rates are very light. During bursts of heavier precipitation, any precip would be mainly snow.
Given the above this is what I would expect:
:
The highest uncertainty with this forecast will be out across eastern MA. Computer forecast models have have the combination of strongest lift and highest moisture over this area, however, signals of an inverted trough setting up across SE MA could actually allow for warmer marine air to contaminate the lowest 2000' of the atmosphere giving this area more in the way of rain or a mix of rain/snow, cutting down snowfall totals. On the western side of this boundary is where the highest snowfall totals are going to occur as on the western side these locations will still be under the strongest lift/highest moisture and will also be cold enough to support all or mainly all snow. The million dollar question (and is always the million dollar question) is where this boundary, known as the "coastal front" sets up.
Snowfall should begin breaking out in the early to mid morning hours and start off light in intensity. In fact, for much of the storm's duration the intensity will only range from light to moderate, with the exception being some areas from SE CT into RI and interior SE MA where stronger lift aloft will allow for more periods of higher intensity snows (possibly in the range of 1'' to 1.5'' per hour). Snow will be ongoing throughout much of the afternoon and overnight periods when the system will finally begin to wind down as it moves off to the north and east. Some leftover flurries are still possible on Wednesday, especially across eastern southern New England.
Areas along the RI/SE MA coast will also experience a mix of rain/snow, especially during the afternoon hours when temperatures in the lowest 1000-1500' of the atmosphere are a touch on the warm side and especially when the precip rates are very light. During bursts of heavier precipitation, any precip would be mainly snow.
Given the above this is what I would expect:
:
Tuesday, November 27th, 2012 light snowfall event
A weak wave or perhaps multiple weak waves of energy will ride along a boundary just to our south throughout the day on Tuesday extending into early Wednesday. While some computer models eventually develop these waves into a somewhat unorganized but juicy storm, the weather pattern for this "cyclogenesis" (development/deepening of a low pressure system) to occur close to the coast is not favorable, therefore, these waves will remain weak.
Several computer models are showing some decent moisture being associated with these waves (at least decent enough to lead to the production of snow) as well as lift just strong enough to lead to the development of precipitation, and given the thermal temperature profiles of the atmosphere we should be looking at mainly snow, though areas along the coast may have to deal with some mixing.
While one of the more reliable computer models shows very little, if any precipitation making it into the region, several other computer models are in agreement that we will see a period of light snow spreading into the region. However, given the one more reliable computer model keeping everything offshore leads me to feel that I wouldn't not be surprised if many of us nothing more than flurries.
Given this, the best shot at "accumulating" snow will be well to the south and east of the MA Pike and any accumulations should generally remain around an inch or so with a few locations perhaps picking up 2-3'', especially if we see some heavier bands work in. Since this system will be occurring more in the daytime with the sun angle not quite at it's lowest yet, surface temperatures may warm up into the mid-30's. This should really help to prevent much in the way of accumulations of non-grassy surfaces, especially considering the snowfall intensity will not be all that heavy. If we were dealing with higher intensity snowfalls these mid-30's surface temps would not be an issue.
Snowfall should begin during the morning hours of Tuesday and virtually go on and off throughout the entire day and lasting into the overnight hours with perhaps a few flurries leftover very early Wednesday AM.
Below is the forecast map:
Several computer models are showing some decent moisture being associated with these waves (at least decent enough to lead to the production of snow) as well as lift just strong enough to lead to the development of precipitation, and given the thermal temperature profiles of the atmosphere we should be looking at mainly snow, though areas along the coast may have to deal with some mixing.
While one of the more reliable computer models shows very little, if any precipitation making it into the region, several other computer models are in agreement that we will see a period of light snow spreading into the region. However, given the one more reliable computer model keeping everything offshore leads me to feel that I wouldn't not be surprised if many of us nothing more than flurries.
Given this, the best shot at "accumulating" snow will be well to the south and east of the MA Pike and any accumulations should generally remain around an inch or so with a few locations perhaps picking up 2-3'', especially if we see some heavier bands work in. Since this system will be occurring more in the daytime with the sun angle not quite at it's lowest yet, surface temperatures may warm up into the mid-30's. This should really help to prevent much in the way of accumulations of non-grassy surfaces, especially considering the snowfall intensity will not be all that heavy. If we were dealing with higher intensity snowfalls these mid-30's surface temps would not be an issue.
Snowfall should begin during the morning hours of Tuesday and virtually go on and off throughout the entire day and lasting into the overnight hours with perhaps a few flurries leftover very early Wednesday AM.
Below is the forecast map:
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Snowfall Total Update
What a winter storm...wow! The mesoscale features and processes involved with them storm have been incredible and when dealing with winter storms and snowfall forecasts it is these features which can absolutely kill snowfall forecasts b/c our computer models just aren't fine enough to pick up on these features in their entirety. Anyways, we have seen some VERY impressive banding set up from central NJ up through the NYC area and into SW CT along with another band (although a bit less impressive) across SE CT into RI. The banding from NJ to SW CT just does not want to move and models continue to indicate this band will sit over these areas for at least several more hours before rotating through the rest of the state. once it begins to rotate through the rest of the state the band will begin to run into some much drier air advecting in from the north resulting in weakening of the band and keeping the more impressive snowfall totals across the SW part of the state. It should also be noted isolated power outages are possible as well as winds continue to gust. Here is updated snowfall map.
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Nor'easter to bring snow/sleet/rain/strong winds/coastal flooding 11/7-11/8
We are a little more than a week removed from the devastating impacts Hurricane Sandy left behind and unfortunately it appears much of the Northeast will be impacted by a strong coastal storm. Thankfully, this system will be nothing similar to that of Sandy, however, this storm will present issues, especially along the coastal plain from NJ up through SNE where strong/damaging winds will occur along with more coastal flooding and for the areas that were severely impacted from Sandy this is the last thing they need.
This will be a very challenging forecast as this system will not only be presenting us with rain but with snowfall/sleet and perhaps even some freezing rain as well and pining down who exactly sees snow and how much will be real difficult. There were be alot of impacts from this storm so let's get right to it and break it all down!
Snowfall
Over the past few days computer forecast models have trended colder, and colder with the airmass preceding the storm and for a duration of the storm and with this much of the region with the exception of the coastal plain will receive minor accumulations of snowfall with the highest totals occurring across the Northwest Hills of CT into the Berkshires of MA. It's also possible many locations within the snow zone will mix with sleet or even completely change over to sleet at some point during the storm and there could be some pockets of freezing rain as well. The snow will be very wet and heavy meaning it will cling to trees/power lines. While accumulations are expected to be on the lower side, we will still deal with some pockets of tree damage and power outages, especially when combined with the potential for strong winds...more on this below.
Rainfall
While much of the coastal Plain will be mostly rain some mixing or brief periods of snow is possible across some of these locations. Rainfall amounts should generally be in the 0.50'' to 1.50'' range and with this the threat for flash flooding will be on the lower side, however, the normal typical flood prone areas could see pockets of flooding.
Damaging Winds
Winds will be the biggest issue right along the coastal plain from NJ up through southern CT/southern RI and right into far SE MA. Across these areas winds will be sustained anywhere from 25-35 mph with wind gusts as high as 60 mph. Across far inland areas winds aren't expected to be this strong but they may gust as high as 30-40 mph. With the forecast for strong winds this will lead to pockets of tree damage/power outages, especially across the coastal Plain..more on this below.
Power Outages:
Across inland locations where minor accumulations of wet snow are expected along with gusty winds there will be pockets of tree damages and power outage but nowhere near to the degree that we experienced with Sandy. Across the coastal Plain where winds are expected to be much stronger power outages will be more on the scattered side than isolated side and this is certainly not good news at all for the restoration process in areas still experiencing outages and issues from Sandy.
Coastal Flooding
Coastal flooding is once again expected from NJ up through coastal CT/RI/SE MA as higher than normal tides will coincide with the height of the storm leading to high storm surge...storm surge in spots can be anywhere from 4-6' which is terrible for the areas that were heavily damaged/destroyed by Sandy.
Precip will begin across NJ/NYC area overnight tonight and slowly spread northward into southern New England by early to mid afternoon. The heaviest of the precip is expected to occur within a window of about 6-8 hours then the system is expected to weaken which will decrease precipitation rates. While the storm will be a slow mover and stall this will allow precip to occur on and off into much of Thursday. Below is a map with snowfall amounts as well as other impacts expected with the storm:
This will be a very challenging forecast as this system will not only be presenting us with rain but with snowfall/sleet and perhaps even some freezing rain as well and pining down who exactly sees snow and how much will be real difficult. There were be alot of impacts from this storm so let's get right to it and break it all down!
Snowfall
Over the past few days computer forecast models have trended colder, and colder with the airmass preceding the storm and for a duration of the storm and with this much of the region with the exception of the coastal plain will receive minor accumulations of snowfall with the highest totals occurring across the Northwest Hills of CT into the Berkshires of MA. It's also possible many locations within the snow zone will mix with sleet or even completely change over to sleet at some point during the storm and there could be some pockets of freezing rain as well. The snow will be very wet and heavy meaning it will cling to trees/power lines. While accumulations are expected to be on the lower side, we will still deal with some pockets of tree damage and power outages, especially when combined with the potential for strong winds...more on this below.
Rainfall
While much of the coastal Plain will be mostly rain some mixing or brief periods of snow is possible across some of these locations. Rainfall amounts should generally be in the 0.50'' to 1.50'' range and with this the threat for flash flooding will be on the lower side, however, the normal typical flood prone areas could see pockets of flooding.
Damaging Winds
Winds will be the biggest issue right along the coastal plain from NJ up through southern CT/southern RI and right into far SE MA. Across these areas winds will be sustained anywhere from 25-35 mph with wind gusts as high as 60 mph. Across far inland areas winds aren't expected to be this strong but they may gust as high as 30-40 mph. With the forecast for strong winds this will lead to pockets of tree damage/power outages, especially across the coastal Plain..more on this below.
Power Outages:
Across inland locations where minor accumulations of wet snow are expected along with gusty winds there will be pockets of tree damages and power outage but nowhere near to the degree that we experienced with Sandy. Across the coastal Plain where winds are expected to be much stronger power outages will be more on the scattered side than isolated side and this is certainly not good news at all for the restoration process in areas still experiencing outages and issues from Sandy.
Coastal Flooding
Coastal flooding is once again expected from NJ up through coastal CT/RI/SE MA as higher than normal tides will coincide with the height of the storm leading to high storm surge...storm surge in spots can be anywhere from 4-6' which is terrible for the areas that were heavily damaged/destroyed by Sandy.
Precip will begin across NJ/NYC area overnight tonight and slowly spread northward into southern New England by early to mid afternoon. The heaviest of the precip is expected to occur within a window of about 6-8 hours then the system is expected to weaken which will decrease precipitation rates. While the storm will be a slow mover and stall this will allow precip to occur on and off into much of Thursday. Below is a map with snowfall amounts as well as other impacts expected with the storm:
Monday, October 29, 2012
Updates to Hurricane Sandy
During the overnight hours Hurricane Sandy actually strengthened. For the better part of the past few days Hurricane Sandy remained steady with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph with gusts in the 85-90 mph range. As Hurricane Sandy continued to move in a NE direction she went over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and with this she strengthened. Hurricane Aircraft hunters have found that maximum sustained winds have increased to 85 mph with wind gusts as high as 105-110 mph and a central pressure of 946mb which ties the record for lowest pressure recorded north of Cape Hatteras, NC and when all said and done Sandy will be the Queen in this regards. With this let's get right into the specifics...
Coastal Flooding/Beach Erosion
It's now becoming more likely that the coastline of central/northern NJ northward into the lowest suburbs of NYC to the south facing shore of Long Island to western coastal CT will experience catastrophic storm surge of record levels and extremely damaging coastal flooding. This will be a life threatening situation to anyone who was told to evacuate who chose not to. Any buildings right along the water are likely to experience extreme damage or complete destruction. Elsewhere across coastal CT/RI/E MA/NH/ME significant coastal flooding/storm surge is expected and will also pose a threat to property on the water front. If you know anyone in an area which was told to evacuate and chose not to get the word to them to evacuate before it's too late and time is basically running out for them to do so safely.
Damaging Winds
We are looking at widespread damaging winds all the way from NJ up to the US/Canadian Border. We will be looking at widespread damaging winds lasting as long as 24-36 hours which will lead to widespread tree/power line damage and widespread power outages, potentially lasting for several days in the hardest hit spots. The strongest wind gusts are expected to occur across the CT coast/RI coast/SE MA where winds could gust as high as 75-85 mph. Here, during the peak sustained winds could be in the 45-55 mph range.
Rain/Flood Threat
We aren't looking at much in the way of rainfall as the bulk of the rain will be off to our west and southwest. With that said we could see some spots pick up 1-2'' of rainfall with some isolated amounts of 3-4''. With this the flooding threat will be real low, however, areas along rivers/streams/brooks may experience some flooding and especially the typical flood prone areas.
Thunderstorm/Tornado Threat
Typically with landfalling tropical system you induce the threat for isolated tornadoes. While that potential did look extremely low leading up to the event, there have been some changes which have lead to a slight increase in the potential. Later on this afternoon we will be experiencing some cold air advection in the mid-levels of the atmosphere along with increasing temps/dewpoints in the lower levels of the atmosphere...this will lead to a slight increase in instability and with that we can't rule out the potential for low topped t'storms and given the very strong wind shear there is a low threat for an isolated tornado. If we are to get t'storms they will have the potential to mix down much stronger winds locally as well. This potential will have to be CLOSELY watched.
Breaks/Peaks of Sun
There will be a dry slot moving into the region later on...with this dry slot comes the potential for some breaks or peak of sunshine. If you happen to witness any sunshine today DO NOT let that get your guard down. Any sunshine will only INCREASE the damaging wind potential and the winds we experience. The sun would warm the atmosphere enhancing mixing allowing for much stronger winds to mix down. If this occurs we could locally increase the gusts by as much as 10 to even 20 mph.
Below are graphics of all the mentioned threats:
Coastal Flooding/Storm Surge
T'storm/tornado threat
Coastal Flooding/Beach Erosion
It's now becoming more likely that the coastline of central/northern NJ northward into the lowest suburbs of NYC to the south facing shore of Long Island to western coastal CT will experience catastrophic storm surge of record levels and extremely damaging coastal flooding. This will be a life threatening situation to anyone who was told to evacuate who chose not to. Any buildings right along the water are likely to experience extreme damage or complete destruction. Elsewhere across coastal CT/RI/E MA/NH/ME significant coastal flooding/storm surge is expected and will also pose a threat to property on the water front. If you know anyone in an area which was told to evacuate and chose not to get the word to them to evacuate before it's too late and time is basically running out for them to do so safely.
Damaging Winds
We are looking at widespread damaging winds all the way from NJ up to the US/Canadian Border. We will be looking at widespread damaging winds lasting as long as 24-36 hours which will lead to widespread tree/power line damage and widespread power outages, potentially lasting for several days in the hardest hit spots. The strongest wind gusts are expected to occur across the CT coast/RI coast/SE MA where winds could gust as high as 75-85 mph. Here, during the peak sustained winds could be in the 45-55 mph range.
Rain/Flood Threat
We aren't looking at much in the way of rainfall as the bulk of the rain will be off to our west and southwest. With that said we could see some spots pick up 1-2'' of rainfall with some isolated amounts of 3-4''. With this the flooding threat will be real low, however, areas along rivers/streams/brooks may experience some flooding and especially the typical flood prone areas.
Thunderstorm/Tornado Threat
Typically with landfalling tropical system you induce the threat for isolated tornadoes. While that potential did look extremely low leading up to the event, there have been some changes which have lead to a slight increase in the potential. Later on this afternoon we will be experiencing some cold air advection in the mid-levels of the atmosphere along with increasing temps/dewpoints in the lower levels of the atmosphere...this will lead to a slight increase in instability and with that we can't rule out the potential for low topped t'storms and given the very strong wind shear there is a low threat for an isolated tornado. If we are to get t'storms they will have the potential to mix down much stronger winds locally as well. This potential will have to be CLOSELY watched.
Breaks/Peaks of Sun
There will be a dry slot moving into the region later on...with this dry slot comes the potential for some breaks or peak of sunshine. If you happen to witness any sunshine today DO NOT let that get your guard down. Any sunshine will only INCREASE the damaging wind potential and the winds we experience. The sun would warm the atmosphere enhancing mixing allowing for much stronger winds to mix down. If this occurs we could locally increase the gusts by as much as 10 to even 20 mph.
Below are graphics of all the mentioned threats:
Coastal Flooding/Storm Surge
Damaging Winds
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Update on Hurricane Sandy impacts
Latest computer model data continues to indicate the much of NJ/NYC/LI/CT/RI/SE MA will see the most extreme impacts from Hurricane Sandy when taking into account coastal flooding and damaging wind potential. When looking at rainfall/flash flooding associated with the rainfall that threat will exist more to our southwest/west, however, we will still deal with some isolated flash flooding here. Given latest guidance here are the hazards at hand:
Coastal Flooding/Beach Erosion
We are looking at major to perhaps catastrophic coastal flooding/beach erosion. While significant coastal flooding will occur from the Jersey shore following the coastline up through southern ME the potential for catastrophic flooding looks to exist from the lower suburbs of NYC extending into western areas of Long Island South along coastal CT as well as the south shore of Long Island sound. For these mentioned areas the difference between significant coastal flooding/beach erosion occurring and catastrophic coastal flooding/beach erosion occurring will all depend on exactly when Sandy makes landfall. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Sandy to make landfall around 2:00 AM in central NJ, however, some latest models are actually speeding up the timing of Sandy meaning she could make landfall several hours earlier than that. Forecasted high tides tomorrow night are around midnight, meaning if we see a landfall closer to the high tides that will be the worst case scenario in terms of coastal flooding/beach erosion as we'd be looking about storm surge as high as 10-12'...which would be record and historic levels. A landfall hours several hours earlier would likely result in storm surge being a few feet less which would probably negate catastrophic type of damage. Either way you slice it, the coast is in for bad times. Looking at substantial damage and/or complete destruction to any buildings along the shore along with significant flooding damage. For anyone who has decided to disobey evacuations in areas ordered to do so this will be a life threatening situation.
Damaging Winds
Pretty much all of New England is forecasted to experience widespread damaging winds from Sandy as well will be located in the portion of the storm with the strongest winds. As of now it appears the strongest sustained winds will be across southern CT/RI/SE MA where sustained winds during the height of the storm will be as strong as 45-55 mph with wind gusts as high as 65-75 mph. Even coastal NH/ME could experience similar conditions. Elsewhere across CT/MA up through MA and into central VT/NH during the height of the storm winds will be sustained between 35-45 mph with wind gusts as high as 55-65 mph. Across central/northern VT/NH extending into southern ME during the height of the storm wind will be sustained between 25-35 mph with wind gusts as high as 50-60 mph. It should be noted that if Sandy ends up making landfall further north than forecasted (which is still certainly possible) we could increase these winds by as much as 10-20 mph, especially across CT/RI/SE MA. Not only will we be dealing with winds of this magnitude but the duration of the damaging winds will be very, very long. In fact, we could be dealing with damaging winds for as long as 24-36 hours. In the end this will lead to widespread wind damage with downed trees/power poles/power lines and widespread power outages. For the areas that get hit hard power outages of at least 3-4 days could be expected.
Rainfall/Flood threat
While the heaviest and most extreme rainfall totals and flooding will occur well to our west/southwest where as much as 5-10'' of rainfall could occur rainfall/flooding is not expected to be a major issues here, in fact, rainfall totals aren't expected to exceed 4'' and totals this high should be more if an isolated occurrence. Given this flooding will not be a widespread issue, however, can't rule out some isolated flooding, especially areas near rivers/streams/brooks or the typical flood prone areas.
We are already beginning to see impacts from the storm with increased waves/surf and winds have been slowly increasing as well. As we work through the evening/overnight conditions will deteriorate very rapidly as winds will begin to vastly increase. We will be impacted through Tuesday, however, by then the winds will have subsided as Sandy will be weakening over land but we can't rule out on and off showers. This is a very dangerous storm with impacts to life and property and everyone should have taken the appropriate measures.
Below is a graphic:
Coastal Flooding/Beach Erosion
We are looking at major to perhaps catastrophic coastal flooding/beach erosion. While significant coastal flooding will occur from the Jersey shore following the coastline up through southern ME the potential for catastrophic flooding looks to exist from the lower suburbs of NYC extending into western areas of Long Island South along coastal CT as well as the south shore of Long Island sound. For these mentioned areas the difference between significant coastal flooding/beach erosion occurring and catastrophic coastal flooding/beach erosion occurring will all depend on exactly when Sandy makes landfall. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Sandy to make landfall around 2:00 AM in central NJ, however, some latest models are actually speeding up the timing of Sandy meaning she could make landfall several hours earlier than that. Forecasted high tides tomorrow night are around midnight, meaning if we see a landfall closer to the high tides that will be the worst case scenario in terms of coastal flooding/beach erosion as we'd be looking about storm surge as high as 10-12'...which would be record and historic levels. A landfall hours several hours earlier would likely result in storm surge being a few feet less which would probably negate catastrophic type of damage. Either way you slice it, the coast is in for bad times. Looking at substantial damage and/or complete destruction to any buildings along the shore along with significant flooding damage. For anyone who has decided to disobey evacuations in areas ordered to do so this will be a life threatening situation.
Damaging Winds
Pretty much all of New England is forecasted to experience widespread damaging winds from Sandy as well will be located in the portion of the storm with the strongest winds. As of now it appears the strongest sustained winds will be across southern CT/RI/SE MA where sustained winds during the height of the storm will be as strong as 45-55 mph with wind gusts as high as 65-75 mph. Even coastal NH/ME could experience similar conditions. Elsewhere across CT/MA up through MA and into central VT/NH during the height of the storm winds will be sustained between 35-45 mph with wind gusts as high as 55-65 mph. Across central/northern VT/NH extending into southern ME during the height of the storm wind will be sustained between 25-35 mph with wind gusts as high as 50-60 mph. It should be noted that if Sandy ends up making landfall further north than forecasted (which is still certainly possible) we could increase these winds by as much as 10-20 mph, especially across CT/RI/SE MA. Not only will we be dealing with winds of this magnitude but the duration of the damaging winds will be very, very long. In fact, we could be dealing with damaging winds for as long as 24-36 hours. In the end this will lead to widespread wind damage with downed trees/power poles/power lines and widespread power outages. For the areas that get hit hard power outages of at least 3-4 days could be expected.
Rainfall/Flood threat
While the heaviest and most extreme rainfall totals and flooding will occur well to our west/southwest where as much as 5-10'' of rainfall could occur rainfall/flooding is not expected to be a major issues here, in fact, rainfall totals aren't expected to exceed 4'' and totals this high should be more if an isolated occurrence. Given this flooding will not be a widespread issue, however, can't rule out some isolated flooding, especially areas near rivers/streams/brooks or the typical flood prone areas.
We are already beginning to see impacts from the storm with increased waves/surf and winds have been slowly increasing as well. As we work through the evening/overnight conditions will deteriorate very rapidly as winds will begin to vastly increase. We will be impacted through Tuesday, however, by then the winds will have subsided as Sandy will be weakening over land but we can't rule out on and off showers. This is a very dangerous storm with impacts to life and property and everyone should have taken the appropriate measures.
Below is a graphic:
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