Update on Hurricane Sandy impacts

Latest computer model data continues to indicate the much of NJ/NYC/LI/CT/RI/SE MA will see the most extreme impacts from Hurricane Sandy when taking into account coastal flooding and damaging wind potential.  When looking at rainfall/flash flooding associated with the rainfall that threat will exist more to our southwest/west, however, we will still deal with some isolated flash flooding here.  Given latest guidance here are the hazards at hand:

Coastal Flooding/Beach Erosion

We are looking at major to perhaps catastrophic coastal flooding/beach erosion.  While significant coastal flooding will occur from the Jersey shore following the coastline up through southern ME the potential for catastrophic flooding looks to exist from the lower suburbs of NYC extending into western areas of Long Island South along coastal CT as well as the south shore of Long Island sound.  For these mentioned areas the difference between significant coastal flooding/beach erosion occurring and catastrophic coastal flooding/beach erosion occurring will all depend on exactly when Sandy makes landfall.  The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Sandy to make landfall around 2:00 AM in central NJ, however, some latest models are actually speeding up the timing of Sandy meaning she could make landfall several hours earlier than that.  Forecasted high tides tomorrow night are around midnight, meaning if we see a landfall closer to the high tides that will be the worst case scenario in terms of coastal flooding/beach erosion as we'd be looking about storm surge as high as 10-12'...which would be record and historic levels.  A landfall hours several hours earlier would likely result in storm surge being a few feet less which would probably negate catastrophic type of damage.  Either way you slice it, the coast is in for bad times.  Looking at substantial damage and/or complete destruction to any buildings along the shore along with significant flooding damage.  For anyone who has decided to disobey evacuations in areas ordered to do so this will be a life threatening situation.  

Damaging Winds

Pretty much all of New England is forecasted to experience widespread damaging winds from Sandy as well will be located in the portion of the storm with the strongest winds. As of now it appears the strongest sustained winds will be across southern CT/RI/SE MA where sustained winds during the height of the storm will be as strong as 45-55 mph with wind gusts as high as 65-75 mph.  Even coastal NH/ME could experience similar conditions.  Elsewhere across CT/MA up through MA and into central VT/NH during the height of the storm winds will be sustained between 35-45 mph with wind gusts as high as 55-65 mph.  Across central/northern VT/NH extending into southern ME during the height of the storm wind will be sustained between 25-35 mph with wind gusts as high as 50-60 mph.  It should be noted that if Sandy ends up making landfall further north than forecasted (which is still certainly possible) we could increase these winds by as much as 10-20 mph, especially across CT/RI/SE MA.  Not only will we be dealing with winds of this magnitude but the duration of the damaging winds will be very, very long.  In fact, we could be dealing with damaging winds for as long as 24-36 hours.  In the end this will lead to widespread wind damage with downed trees/power poles/power lines and widespread power outages.  For the areas that get hit hard power outages of at least 3-4 days could be expected.

Rainfall/Flood threat

While the heaviest and most extreme rainfall totals and flooding will occur well to our west/southwest where as much as 5-10'' of rainfall could occur rainfall/flooding is not expected to be a major issues here, in fact, rainfall totals aren't expected to exceed 4'' and totals this high should be more if an isolated occurrence.  Given this flooding will not be a widespread issue, however, can't rule out some isolated flooding, especially areas near rivers/streams/brooks or the typical flood prone areas.

We are already beginning to see impacts from the storm with increased waves/surf and winds have been slowly increasing as well.  As we work through the evening/overnight conditions will deteriorate very rapidly as winds will begin to vastly increase.  We will be impacted through Tuesday, however, by then the winds will have subsided as Sandy will be weakening over land but we can't rule out on and off showers.  This is a very dangerous storm with impacts to life and property and everyone should have taken the appropriate measures.

Below is a graphic: