February 8-9, 2025 southern New England Winter Storm (Overnight)

 We have entered an active stretch of weather with multiple winter storm threats between Super Bowl weekend and the upcoming week. Let's get right to it and discuss the Super Bowl weekend winter storm potential. 

Low pressure develops within eastern Colorado and central Plains Saturday along a baroclinic zone evolving into a frontal system as it rapidly tracks east-northeast across the country. Meanwhile an abundance of shortwave energy embedded within a fast zonal jet stream aloft traverses the northern Plains. This shortwave energy is expected to give a bit of a boost to the system as this shortwave energy has some interaction with the frontal system:

Moving into Saturday evening, computer forecast model guidance indicates very strong upper-level diffluence (faster jet stream winds moving into slower jet stream winds) with increasing upper-level divergence across the Northeast (evident by the wind barbs moving away from each other). The increasing upper-level divergence will help precipitation blossom within the region Saturday evening which will be further aided by increasing warm-air advection (supplying moisture) and strengthening area of surface low pressure:

Increasing precipitation Saturday afternoon and evening across the Northeast:

As the system lifts northeast and then east across the Northeast, we'll see a several hour window of strong upward vertical motion (lift) traverse the region:

Latest bufkit profiles across the region from the 18z/06 run of the GFS show a several hour period where omega values range between -20 to -30 ubar/s within the dendritic snow growth zone with snowfall ratios in excess of 10:1 and potentially greater than 15:1. This is suggestive of heavy snowfall rates (perhaps in excess of 1inch per hour) with excellent snow growth. Below is an example from Worcester, MA (ORH):

So, what can we expect? This will be another fast-moving, quick hitting winter storm with the brunt of the storm impact occurring in a 3-5 hour window. 

• Snow arrives from southwest to northeast across the region, beginning first across western Connecticut between 6:00-8:00 PM EST Saturday evening and 8:00-10:00 PM EST across northeastern Massachusetts. 
• Heaviest snowfall occurs between the hours of 11:00 PM - 4:00 AM EST. This is when snowfall rates could approach 1 inch per hour under the heaviest echo's. 
• Snow begins tapering off southwest-to-northeast during the pre-dawn hours southwest and around or shortly after daybreak Sunday northeast. 
• The fast forward speed of this storm limits accumulations. 
• Outside of the immediate coastal Plain and outer Cape, precipitation will be all snow. Sleet is expected to mix in across the immediate shoreline of Connecticut and Rhode Island and outer Cape Cod. This holds down totals slightly in these areas.
• Below is what I am currently expecting: