A shortwave trough entering the upper-Midwest early Wednesday afternoon amplifies (strengthens) as it traverses the Great Lakes region through the evening and overnight.
As the shortwave trough amplifies, an area of surface low pressure across southeast Canada will continue strengthening as it progresses southeast and slides across northern New England during the overnight hours. With strong upper-level divergence just south of New England, combined with strong warm air advection in the lower-levels of the atmosphere. precipitation is expected to blossom later this evening and overnight within the region:
Where the thermal profile is expected to support all snow, snow will come down moderate at times. While this 18z/Dec 4 NAM bufkit run for Worcester, MA doesn't show impressive upward vertical motion, it does show around -5 units of omega bisecting the snowgrowth zone (purple and yellow contours) for much of the late evening and overnight:
The solid light blue line shows snowfall ratios. Farther inland, away from the coast and northwest of the I-84 corridor snowfall ratios should be as high as 12:1 to 15:1 during the peak of the snowfall.
What to Expect:
- Due to warmer air at the surface and within the lowest 2,500 feet of the atmosphere, areas south and east of the I-84 corridor are expected to be a rain/snow mix with all rain likely for the immediate coastal areas.
- The heaviest snow and greatest accumulations will be within Berkshire County of Massachusetts into the northwest hills of Connecticut. Here precipitation will fall as all snow. A second area of greatest accumulations will be within the higher elevations of Worcester County Massachusetts into the northeast hills of Connecticut where there will be greater precipitation totals and stronger upward vertical motion. In fact, some areas just northwest of Worcester, Massachusetts could pick up 6-7''.
- Precipitation begins to break out anywhere between 8:00 PM - 10:00 PM EST Wednesday from a west to east direction with the heaviest snowfall rates (and rainfall rates for the coast) occurring between 1:00 AM - 7:00 AM EST Thursday morning.
- Expect a very slow Thursday morning commute and give yourself extra travel time.
- Precipitation winds down early Thursday morning, however, scattered snow squalls are expected throughout the day which can quickly lead to brief, but quickly diminished visibility and dangerous travel and even drop a quick inch of snow. Some thunder and lighting is also possible with the more intense squalls.
- Below is what I am thinking:
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