Accumulating Snowfall Event Likely Sunday, December 11, 2022

 A potent piece of shortwave energy traversing the jet stream passes southeast across New England Sunday afternoon and undergoing minor amplification:

A weak wave of low pressure develops during the amplification process. The system will acquire moisture as the shortwave tracks across the Great Lakes and will draw in moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. With a cold enough airmass in place across the state precipitation should be all snow. The only exception may along the immediate shoreline where surface temperatures may be a bit too warm for snow, however, the airmass will be quite cold aloft and the warm layer will be relatively thin. 

Forecast models are in strong agreement that the low pressure will track over Connecticut Sunday afternoon into early Sunday overnight with forecast models indicating a several hour period of moderate lift traversing at least the western part of the state. The 18z/09 GFS bufkit for Windsor Locks, CT (BDL) indicates moderate lift within the dendritic snow growth zone early Sunday evening then briefly again overnight Monday. With sufficient moisture within the snow growth zone a period of moderate snow is likely:

Based on the forecast model agreement and likelihood for a period of moderate lift to traverse the state, a widespread 2-4'' is likely across the state with totals held down a bit along the immediate shoreline where surface temperatures may be a bit on the warm side. 

What we're looking at:

• Light snow arrives during the afternoon with snow coming down moderate at times during the evening and early overnight with snow tapering off during the overnight. 
• Roads will become slick as the afternoon progresses and expect a slick evening commute. 

Below is my initial forecast: