Record High's in the Hartford Area Likely 05.21.2022

 A warm front lifts northeast late Friday ushering in an anomalously warm low-level airmass characterized by 850mb temperatures running +2.5-3 standard deviations above-normal:

Bufkit sounding from the GFS forecast model for Windsor Locks, CT (BDL) indicates the potential for a very well and deeply mixed boundary later Saturday with mixing occurring as high as ~770mb (~7,000-7,500 feet) above the ground:

Forecast models also indicate a plume of extremely steep mid-level lapse rates in association with an elevated mixed-layer moving overhead. This is very important as this will promote a very strong capping inversion roughly around 10,000 feet above the ground. This will do a few things:

1) Likely suppress the development of any clouds though will have to watch for some high-level cirrus. 

2) Promote exceptional mixing below this inversion. This increases the potential for maximum heating and temperatures to be realized.

Forecast models are indicating much of interior Connecticut (with exception of the shoreline, northwest, and northeast hills though 80's are very likely) seeing temperatures climb between 90-95 Saturday. However, given the potential degree of mixing there is potential for temperatures to push into the mid-to-upper 90's in the Hartford area which would shatter the daily record high of 93! The all-time record high temperature in the Hartford area is 99. That won't be broken but there is a low probability that could be tied!

There are some caveats though which will determine whether we are in the 90-95 range or 95-99 range:

1) Dewpoints - If we don't mix as well and dewpoints maintain in the 60's this could limit the maximum temperature from being realized. 

2) Surface wind direction - If the surface winds have more of a westerly component this will increase the potential for maximum temperatures to be realized. If the surface wind has a more southerly component this will likely result in a bit of a marine influence, holding temperatures back a bit.

Saturday is certainly slated to be the hottest day of the year with record warmth likely!