Tuesday, December 17, 2019 Winter Storm Update

I am becoming a bit more concerned for the possibility of a major to perhaps significant icing event for a large portion of CT (virtually south and east of I-84 to the I-95 corridor). This is going to be an extremely messy and high impact winter storm with significant travel impacts Tuesday.

As precipitation arrives late Monday evening, everyone begins as snow (the immediate shoreline, however, quickly transitions to sleet and then eventually rain. A potentially 3-4 hour window of moderate-to-heavy snow is expected during the overnight as some very strong lift associated with warm-air advection arrives (Keep in mind the heaviest rates will be on the leading edge of the lift):

As this stronger lift moves through temperatures a few thousand feet off the ground will warm above freezing while temperatures near the surface remain below-freezing. This is a recipe for freezing rain. The latest NAM run indicates potential for significant freezing rain accumulation across southern CT. This forecast precipitation for New Haven ,CT reveals a long duration period of freezing rain with moderate-to-freezing rain:

What to Expect:

• Snow breaks out late Monday evening and quickly becoming moderate-to-heavy overnight 
• Snowfall rates between 1-2'' per hour across central/northern CT
• Highest totals near the CT/MA border with less along immediate shoreline
• Snow quickly transitions to sleet then rain along the immediate shoreline although freezing rain is possible here too
• Snow begins to transition to sleet/freezing across interior CT during the early morning
• ***MAJOR ice accretion is possible between the I-84 to I-95 corridor***
• Dangerous travel...travel is NOT recommended 
• Numerous power outages possible-to-likely
• Downed tree limbs and weakened trees
• Precipitation slowly begins to wind down during the late morning and afternoon