Quick Hitting System to Bring Upwards of Several Inches of Snow to CT 01/17/2018

A quick hitting storm system will bring plowable snows to the state of CT Wednesday morning. While not a significant system, the timing of the system combined with the short duration of when the snows will fall will likely lead to very slow travel and heavy delays for the Wednesday morning commute.

A trough currently digging into the northern plains and upper mid-west will continue to amplify (strengthen) over the next couple of days. As the trough amplifies, shortwave energy rotating around the base of the trough will help lead to the development of a low pressure system just south of CT overnight Tuesday into Wednesday:

As the area of low pressure develops and intensifies a surge of moisture will be thrown back over CT as evident by precipitable water values (PWATS) approaching and slightly exceeding 0.50'' Wednesday morning:

Despite the system not becoming overly strong, a good slug of moisture combined with enhanced lift thanks to modest frontogenesis and tight thickness will yield a several hour period for moderate to heavy snows across the state. Computer forecast models all yield a swath of moderate upward vertical motion which traverses over the state during the early and mid-morning hours on Wednesday:

While some bufkit soundings across the state suggest that the most intense lift will actually be below the snowgrowth zone, sufficient moisture within the snowgrowth zone, and enhanced lift and forcing due to modest frontogenesis and tight thicknesses will help to compensate for this and strong low-level lift will yield period of moderate to heavy snow is likely across the state:

What can we expect?

• Snow begins to fall between midnight and 3:00 AM Wednesday morning.
• By daybreak and the early rush hour commute snow will begin to fall more moderate to heavy at times with snowfall rates approaching 1'' per hour. Given the timing of the moderate to heavy snow, this will likely have a major impact on the morning commute and numerous delays and school cancellations are likely. Expect travel to be very slow as well. 
• The heaviest of the snow falls between 6:00 AM and about 10:00 AM Wednesday morning and this is when the majority of the accumulations occur. 
• Snow begins to taper off between 10:00 AM and noon. 
• Despite a rather quick moving storm, several inches of snow are possible given the degree of available moisture with this system combined with adequate upward vertical motion from the processes described above.

Below is what I am expecting: