Accumulating Snows Possible Thursday into Friday

We aren't looking at a major snow event Thursday night into Friday but portions of the state could see some light snowfall accumulations as an area of low pressure develops along a cold front just to the south and east of CT. As has been the case this winter this is a bit of a tricky forecast, however, there are some signals that we could see a band of moderate snow develop and traverse over the portions of the state. While this window may be rather brief there is the possibility for a brief period of moderate to perhaps heavy snows. Given the timing of this potential, this could have an impact on the Friday morning commute.

As we move towards the end of the week and amplifying (strengthening) long-wave trough will approach our region along with an attendant cold front. Within the amplifying trough will be strengthening shortwave energy. This strengthening shortwave energy will help to enhance mid-level forcing and lift across the state along with aiding in the development of a weak area of surface low pressure along the cold front:

While computer forecast models aren't particularly impressive with their output of liquid precipitation totals, there are some signals this could be a bit underdone. We will explore some of these signals below.

One signal is with regards to a blob of warmer than average sea-surface temperatures just east of New Jersey and south of Long Island and the very cold low level airmass which will work into the region as the trough begins to push through:

What is the significance of this? When you have such a cold airmass pushing over waters which are much warmer this creates atmospheric instability due to the large temperature gradient which exists between the water temperature and temperature of the airmass. This works to enhance upward vertical motion. This is one driver in the development of lake effect snows. This may also explain why some of the "smaller" forecasted events thus far this season have overperformed, especially closer to the coast where the effects of this enhanced gradient is stronger. The warmer water temperatures can also add increased moisture and water vapor for a system to work with, especially if the system tracks right over these warmer waters.

The second signals is an enhanced area of frontogenesis and vertical velocities which some computer forecast models indicate will develop across portions of CT, particularly east of the CT River. Frontogenesis, simply defined is the increase in horizontal temperature gradient over time. The stronger the frontogenesis, the stronger the horizontal temperature gradient which indicates a steep temperature change as you ascend through the vertical in the atmosphere. This is another feature which can enhance the degree of upward vertical motion. Vertical velocity is a measure of upward vertical motion with the greater the value the stronger the upward vertical motion:

A bufkit sounding from this morning's run of the GFS computer forecast model over Windham, CT suggests the potential for a window of moderate snow Friday morning. Bufkit soundings show the snowgrowth zone between 12,000 and 18,000 ft (preferred zone for the generation of excellent snowgrowth) with sufficient moisture (not shown here as it would complicate the picture) within the snowgrowth zone along with sufficient upward vertical motion:

What should we expect?

As we move through this evening a warm front will be approaching and as it approaches we will run the risk for a few snow or rain showers. During the day on Thursday temperatures will warm a bit and we will continue to run the risk for a few showers. Late Thursday afternoon and evening the cold front will approach and then eventually push through and usher in colder air. At this time, this is when computer forecast models suggest the development of a very weak area of surface low pressure along the front which was described above. At this time we will begin to see the blossoming of some precipitation which should be in the form of some snow as the surface temperature begins to drop towards the wet-bulb. The timeframe of snow should be between 3:00 AM and 9:00 AM Friday morning where periods of light to even moderate (at times) snow will occur. Given the timing, there could be some impact to Friday morning travel. Based on the above this is what I'm thinking right now:

Wednesday, January 17th, 2018 CT Snow Event Update

Not much in the way of changes to my forecast from yesterday, however, due to some concerns about snowfall mixing with and/or changing to sleet or rain across portions of southeastern CT and along the coast I have lowered snowfall totals here from 3-6'' to 2-4''. The forecast for the rest of the state remains the same with 3-6'' of snowfall expected:

While there is a possibility that a few locations could approach 6-8'' of snowfall if heavy enough banding sets up long enough I think that potential is extremely low. When looking at some ;latest bufkit profile soundings across the state, we see that the majority of the lift is well below the dendritic snowgrowth zone and with the low-level airmass on the warm-ish side, this will really hurt snowfall ratios and preclude the likelihood for those big fluffy dendrites to develop (the ones that accumulate pretty quickly):

If we are able to get better lift into the dendritic snowgrowth zone, there could be a swath of some higher snowfall totals, however, at this time there is very little consensus suggesting this scenario will unfold.

What can we expect:

• Snowfall should begin to break out between 12:00 AM and 3:00 AM Wednesday morning. 
• Snowfall will begin to pick up in intensity and vary between moderate to even heavy at times with the majority of the snows falling between 6:00 AM and 10:00 AM. This is also during the time of morning rush hour commute so expect numerous travel delays as well as school cancellations. If out traveling extra caution should be exercised. 
• Due to the warm-ish low-level airmass, snow will be on the heavier side which will maker it a bit more difficult to move. 
• The snow will begin to wind down around 11:00 AM or so with some leftover flurries into the afternoon. 
• Southeastern CT and portions of coastal CT may see a mix of sleet and even a change to rain, thus snowfall totals could be reduced here. 

Quick Hitting System to Bring Upwards of Several Inches of Snow to CT 01/17/2018

A quick hitting storm system will bring plowable snows to the state of CT Wednesday morning. While not a significant system, the timing of the system combined with the short duration of when the snows will fall will likely lead to very slow travel and heavy delays for the Wednesday morning commute.

A trough currently digging into the northern plains and upper mid-west will continue to amplify (strengthen) over the next couple of days. As the trough amplifies, shortwave energy rotating around the base of the trough will help lead to the development of a low pressure system just south of CT overnight Tuesday into Wednesday:

As the area of low pressure develops and intensifies a surge of moisture will be thrown back over CT as evident by precipitable water values (PWATS) approaching and slightly exceeding 0.50'' Wednesday morning:

Despite the system not becoming overly strong, a good slug of moisture combined with enhanced lift thanks to modest frontogenesis and tight thickness will yield a several hour period for moderate to heavy snows across the state. Computer forecast models all yield a swath of moderate upward vertical motion which traverses over the state during the early and mid-morning hours on Wednesday:

While some bufkit soundings across the state suggest that the most intense lift will actually be below the snowgrowth zone, sufficient moisture within the snowgrowth zone, and enhanced lift and forcing due to modest frontogenesis and tight thicknesses will help to compensate for this and strong low-level lift will yield period of moderate to heavy snow is likely across the state:

What can we expect?

• Snow begins to fall between midnight and 3:00 AM Wednesday morning.
• By daybreak and the early rush hour commute snow will begin to fall more moderate to heavy at times with snowfall rates approaching 1'' per hour. Given the timing of the moderate to heavy snow, this will likely have a major impact on the morning commute and numerous delays and school cancellations are likely. Expect travel to be very slow as well. 
• The heaviest of the snow falls between 6:00 AM and about 10:00 AM Wednesday morning and this is when the majority of the accumulations occur. 
• Snow begins to taper off between 10:00 AM and noon. 
• Despite a rather quick moving storm, several inches of snow are possible given the degree of available moisture with this system combined with adequate upward vertical motion from the processes described above.

Below is what I am expecting:

Heavy Rains and Some Flooding Followed by a Flash Freeze

The end of the week and beginning of the weekend appears to be rather interesting weather wise across CT as a surge of unseasonably mild and moist air pushes into the state along with some very heavy rains. Temperatures on Friday and overnight Friday are expected to push well into the 50's with dewpoint temperatures expected to climb into the 50's as well ahead of an approaching cold front associated with a rather deep trough. The presence of a warm and moist airmass along with lift associated with the approaching front and trough will set the stage for some periods of heavy rainfall. The combination of heavy rainfall, temperatures into the 50's, and dewpoints into the 50's will contribute to rapid snow melt (the dewpoints into the 50's will erode the snow very quickly). The combination of rapid snow melt and heavy rainfall will yield pockets of flooding across the state, especially the typical flood prone areas. When the front moves through mid-to-late morning on Saturday temperatures will drop very quickly and this will lead to flash freezing of any water as temperatures fall below 32. There is even a small window for some freezing rain across parts of the state Saturday morning as well, however, with ground temperatures likely still very warm this potential should be rather small.

Currently, a trough has been digging into the western-tier of the United States and as this trough enters the western United States the response has been for ridging to develop across the central and eastern United States:

As this ridge continues to build northward and build in higher geopotential heights this will work to push the colder temperatures northward into Canada. Also, an area of high pressure which is moving off the New England coast will help promote a southerly flow in CT (remember the flow around high pressure systems in the northern hemisphere is clockwise) and this will begin transporting milder and more moist air into the state:

As the trough progresses eastward across the country and approaches we will see strong lift thanks to the advancing cold front,/trough and strong jet dynamics aloft. This combined with the high moisture content in the atmosphere will contribute to periods of heavy rainfall during the day on Friday and then again overnight Friday through Saturday morning. On Friday computer forecast models are suggesting precipitable water values (PWATS) exceeding 1.50'' which is very impressive for the month of January:

During the day Friday, the state will be in the right entrance region of a 120+ knot upper-level jet (not the upper-level jet streak which is north of the border into Canada) which is a favorable quadrant for enhanced lower-level divergence and upper-level convergence. This will only enhance the potential for blossoming and heavy rainfall. This will also enhance the likelihood for multiple waves of low pressure to develop along the cold front which further enhances the degree of upward vertical motion in the atmosphere:

Computer forecast models also suggest high vertical velocities at 700mb (~10,000' off the ground) and 850mb (~5,000' off the ground) which will enhance the potential for periods of heavy rainfall across the state during the day on Friday and then again overnight Friday into Saturday morning:

The heavy rainfall potential may also be further enhanced if there are any convective elements involved with the rainfall, especially Friday night into Saturday morning as some computer forecast models indicate a pocket of a few hundred J/KG of most-unstable CAPE perhaps moving over the state. This could yield the potential for an embedded thunderstorm which would locally enhance rainfall rates and rainfall totals:

Just how much rainfall are we expecting? Given everything described above, along with what computer forecast models are indicating, we are looking at the potential for 1-3'' of rainfall statewide between Friday and Saturday with some areas perhaps seeing amounts ranging between 3-4'' of rain. This, combined with snow melt will surely lead to flooding in spots. If travelling and you encounter a road with standing water, DO NOT attempt to drive though it. It only takes a few inches of moving water to lift up your vehicle:

As we move into Saturday morning and through the morning things become quite intriguing as the cold front begins to push through. As the cold front does move through, winds will quickly shift from a southerly direction more towards the northwest and this will usher in much colder air and quickly too. Temperatures will quickly crash back from the 50's to the 40's and into the 30's and upper 20's. As this happens, the ground will begin to cooler very quickly and as ground temperatures begin to fall below freezing any liquid water will quickly begin to freeze and this will allow for walkways and roads to ice up. Any untreated surfaces will become rather icy and extra caution should be given when out driving and walking. As the front passes the winds will also begin to become a bit more gusty as well so temperatures will feel even colder than they actually are. While a small probability, some computer forecast models so linger some moisture around as temperatures drop to below freezing. If this does happen, there could be a risk for some freezing rain. Initially, with ground temperatures too warm it may not freeze to surfaces right away, however, it adds to the water on the ground which will eventually freeze. Temperatures into the 20's for high and lows in the teens will once again return for the end of the weekend as we move into the new work week.

2nd Snowfall Forecast Update...Time to Increase Totals More

Well I'm going to feel like an idiot after making ANOTHER update within hours. I should have waited for the newer model data to arrive and used that along with mesosnalysis data before making an update. The science and meteorology behind the reasoning is still the same as the last post:

http://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2018/01/snowfall-forecast-update.html

but the snowfall totals can be fined tune more.

As the radar evolves we are beginning to see what I discussed the past few days, with precipitation becoming more band-like. This is yielding bands of extremely heavy snowfall with incredible snowfall rates and in between these bands we have zones of subsidence. It's beginning to look like we will see a main band set right up through central CT with a zone of subsidence southeast of this band and then another heavier band followed by another zone of subsidence. These zones will move off to the northwest. So what will happen if areas under the banding will see a period of extremely heavy snow with blizzard and white out conditions then the subsidence zone will work in and snowfall rates and intensity will be reduced. Then more banding moves overhead. As the storm further begins to take shape, we will see this stuff pivot, when this happens we will see heavy banding sit right over central CT leading to highest snowfall totals here. Based on observations from across the state, latest model data, and mesosnalysis data this is my adjusted map. Again, I should have waited before making an earlier update but as explain this week, this was going to be a nowcasting situation and updates would have to come as things were evolving:

Snowfall Forecast Update

As the morning unfolds many of the questions we had coming into today are finally being answered and if you're a fan of lots of snow you'll like this news. If not, I apologize. It does appear that we will see a potent band of extremely heavy snowfall setup across central and portions of eastern CT. In addition to heavy snowfall we will see strong to damaging wind gusts leading to whiteout and blizzard conditions at times, and even some thundersnow!

As the morning progresses and watching mesoanalysdis data it is becoming apparent that the 700mb low will track far enough to the west to allow for a ribbon of very intense upward vertical motion to setup across a good portion of CT. This is seen looking at a 700mb frontogenesis chart:

A radar grab from 9:00 AM shows a band of extremely heavy snowfall developing just to the southeast of CT and this will continue to pivot over the state over the next several hours:

With such intense upward vertical motion thundersnow will be likely within this band as well and we've already seen reports of thundersnow, including cloud-to-ground lightning in southeastern CT.

What can we expect:

• As mid-level lift continues to increase over the next few hours, expect an increase in snowgrowth from southeast to northwest across the state. This is when you'll see snowflakes go from small to much larger in size. 
• Snowfall rates will continue to increase as well over the next several hours and will approach and exceed 1'' per hour at times. Under the heavy band, expect snowfall rates to vastly increase and approach anywhere from 3-5'' per hour, especially with any thundersnow. 
• Winds will continue to strengthen as well as the system continues to undergo rapid strengthening enhancing the pressure gradient. With heavy snow and strong winds, this will set the stage for whiteout conditions and blizzard conditions at times. In fact, a blizzard warning is now posted for New Haven, Middlesex, and New London Counties. Power outages will also occur due to the strong winds. 
• Winds could gust as high as 40-50 mph with some gusts perhaps approaching 60 mph across southeastern CT. 
• The heaviest snows persist until 2-4 PM this afternoon before gradually beginning to subside. 
• Travel is NOT advised. 

January 4th, 2018 Snowfall Forecast/Discussion

Significant coastal storm currently undergoing rapid cyclogenesis (strengthening) off the southeastern United States coast with sea-level pressure already down into the low-to-mid 990mb range. This low will continue tracking off to the north-north-east and pass to the southeast of southern New England and come very close to the 40/70 benchmark (40 degree north latitude, 70 degree west longitude) which is a prime track for moderate to heavy snows across much of southern New England, including here in CT:

In yesterday's post it was discussed that we were watching two pieces of shortwave energy which would phase (combine) across the southeastern United States with the response being the development of a surface low pressure just off the southeastern United States. We have seen this happen as evident by the low pressure southeast of South Carolina. 

Now what we are watching (and this was one of the many questions faced with this potential as the week has progressed) is whether or not there would be any interaction with northern stream energy rotating around a developing shortwave trough. Over the week, various computer forecast models differed in how the developing system would interact with this northern stream shortwave trough. Some computer forecast models had the two interact, with the shortwave trough being on the stronger side, thus acting as a "kicker". This allowed for some computer forecast models to show solutions which were more east (less snows for us). Some computer forecast models kept that northern stream shortwave trough a bit weaker, and keeping shortwave energy associated with the storm system much stronger. The result was an interaction (phase) of the northern stream shortwave trough and the storm system which gave solutions of further explosive development of the system which was shown as bombogenesis. It has become apparent over the past day that the later scenario is more likely to verify and this system is going to undergo bombogenesis as it passes to the southeast of New England:

As the interaction occurs the surface low is going to deepen incredibly rapidly and the result will be for blossoming precipitation around the storms center and very heavy precipitation will begin to transform on the northeastern quadrant of the low. Computer forecast models all agree on the surface low deepening down into the 950mb range by early Thursday afternoon southeast of Rhode Island. This is a sign of an incredibly strong coastal storm:

 

So what can we expect here in CT? This is going to be an extremely challenging forecast and in fact it will be very difficult for any one forecast to completely nail the snowfall amounts. There will be so many mesoscale phenomena happening and occurring and these details just aren't easy forecasted by computer models because they just don't have the resolution to do so. There will be areas which see far more snow than other and there will be areas who see far less...that is always the nature of the beast with the systems. The best thing to do is just explain everything. 

1.  With the storm becoming so strong (the central pressure will rival that of a category 2 to a category 3 hurricane!) this will have a big impact on the precipitation shield. The further you move away from the center of the storm, precipitation may end up being more band-like in nature as opposed to being a widespread shield of precipitation. For comparison think of bands of precipitation you would see with a tropical storm or a hurricane. If you have precipitation which is more band-like, you'll see two things happen here; 1) Under the bands you'll have vigorous upward vertical motion which will lead to moderate to heavy snows as sufficient moisture is being lifted into the snowgrowth zone along with sufficient upward vertical motion. Snowfall rates here could easily exceed 1'' per hour and may even approach 2'' per hour. However, in between the bands you'll have vigorous downward vertical motion. This is sinking air and this results in subsidence which results in vastly reduced snowfall rates and also poor snowgrowth given lack of stronger moisture and lift being transported into the snowgrowth zone. This alone will make a snowfall forecast very difficult because this could lead to large snowfall gradients across a very small distance. 

2) Where the heaviest banding of snow sets up. This is always a tough forecast in any winter storm. When assessing this potential one thing to watch for is where the 700mb low begins to close off and where it tracks. The strongest upward vertical motion occurs on the northwest side of these closed lows (925mb, 850mb, 700mb) but the distance of how far away from the closed circulation can vary.  When assessing 700mb vertical velocities (great tool for assessing where the strongest upward vertical motion will be located) there are some differences between the computer forecast models as to where the best upward vertical motion will set up and thus where the heaviest banding will setup. The NAM is a bit west of most models while the GFS is a bit more east and is in line with other models:

Not only is determining where the best banding sets up important for determining where the highest snowfall totals will occur but it's also important for determining where you'll have subsidence sets up. Think of it like this...what goes up, must go down. If you have a zone of rapidly rising air you must have a zone of rapidly descending air. In this later zone this leads to vastly reduced snowfall intensities, snowfall rates, and snowgrowth. Typically this zone will occur on the northwestern side of where the heaviest banding sets up and there is a strong possibility this happens over CT. We can also use bufkit profiles to assess this. NAM and GFS bufkit soundings over Windsor Locks, CT hint at a period of subsidence which would lead to a period of reduced snowfall rates and intensities before the subsidence moves out and a return to moderate to heavy snow occurs:

The NAM and GFS also show an incredibly amount of 800mb-600mb vertically averaged frontogenesis moving across the state with the NAM a bit more west than the GFS. This would be indicative of incredibly heavy snowfall with snowfall rates likely approaching 4-5'' per hour. For time purposes will just show the NAM. The GFS is very similar except just a bit east:

In addition to heavy snows we will also be watching the potential for strong to damaging winds which could not only lead to the potential for power outages and downed trees but could lead to white out and near blizzard conditions at times. Winds could gust upwards of 40-50 mph during the storm and also after the storm. 

What to expect:

• Snow begins to breakout between 1:00 AM and 4:00 AM tomorrow morning. 
• Snow begins to increase in intensity through the morning hours and will range between moderate and heavy at times. 
• The snow forecast will be very difficult given what was just explained above. If precipitation is more bandy this will have a substantial impact on the snowfall totals and accumulations which would be rather difficult to portray on a map. Figuring out where the heaviest banding sets up, and if it even does so in CT will also impact totals, both for higher amounts and lower amounts. If the heaviest banding sets up in CT anyone under the band will experience substantially heavy snowfall rates under the band with rates approaching 4-5'' per hour at times. This combined with strong to damaging winds would yield whiteout to blizzard conditions at times. 
• Snow will begin to taper off mid to late afternoon, however, strong winds persist well into the overnight hours. 
• Given such uncertainties, unfortunately, this leads to a rather large range in my snowfall forecast:

Significant Coastal Storm to Bring Snows to CT...But How Much?

While the airmass we have been locked into for some time now hasn't been really historic in terms of the degree of the cold but it is very impressive in terms of its duration.While the cold has not really come with much in the way of snow this will all change Thursday as an extremely strong coastal storm will be developing and will drop a significant amount of snows somewhere in southern New England, the question is just where? For us here in CT we will have to closely watch and monitor the exact track of the system (as well as other factors) as this will play a large role in what we are looking at for potential snowfall totals. Unfortunately, after this system passes it looks like things will become even COLDER for the first part of the weekend but there is a bit of a warm-up to begin next week! 

Currently, there are two pieces of shortwave energy we are watching. The first piece is located across the northern Plains and will continue to dive to the southeast. The second is located across the southern Plains and will move a bit southeast as well. These two will eventually phase (combine) across the southeastern United States coast:

As a result we will see the development of a surface low pressure just off the southeast coast and extreme cyclogenesis (strengthening of the surface low pressure) occur. This system is expected to develop and strengthen very rapidly:

 As the system tracks northeast off the east coast it will begin to undergo bombogenesis (a term used to describe EXTREME deepening of a surface low) off the New England coast.  Numerous computer forecast models strengthen the system well into the low 950mb range (and in some cases into the 940's). This would be really exceptional for our latitude and to give an idea of how strong of a system that is those pressure readings would rival that of a strong category 2 to a category 3 hurricane! With this system we will see substantial snowfall totals, very high snowfall rates within the heaviest banding which could exceed 5'' per hour, and very strong/damaging wind gusts of 50-60+ mph which would yield blizzard conditions and whiteout conditions. Again, the question is do we see any of this here in CT?

There are some large spreads within the computer forecast models with regards to how far west/east the system will track and again, this is critical to how much snow we see here in CT. We'll just look at the American forecast models such as the NAM and GFS (I can't post European model data unfortunately) to illustrate the differences. This afternoon's runs of the NAM and GFS show some big differences with the track and the result is big differences with how far west the heaviest snows get. The NAM brings moderate to heavy snows into CT while the GFS keep the heavier snows just east of the state:

However, this afternoon's GFS ensemble run suggests a bit higher likelihood for heavier snows to push into CT. Each of the individual images below represent a different "member" of the ensemble:

Not only does the surface low pass to our southeast but the 925mb lows, 850mb lows, and 700mb lows also pass to our southeast. These are prime tracks of these lows for moderate to heavy snowfall to occur somewhere in southern New England but again where that heavy snowfall occurs all depends on the exact track of these lows. the reason for the heavy snows to the northwest of these low tracks is due to the substantial upward vertical motion that occurs in this quadrant of a low pressure. In the case of this system we have substantial moisture being lifted well up into the dendritic snowgrowth zone, this is going to produce very heavy snows somewhere:

What is also rather impressive with this system is that computer forecast models develop a closed off circulation at 500mb which only happens in exceptionally strong systems:

This would work to not only enhance the bombogenesis process but would also yield to slow the storm's motion down a bit and also further increase the intensity of the upward vertical motion enhancing the snowfall rates in the bands and also increasing the strength of the subsidence and reducing snowfall rates and intensity in places.

Anyways I usually try to go more in depth and a little technical, especially in these types of storms but lack of time will prevent that. But for right now I will hold off on making a snowfall forecast until tomorrow evening. I would do it during the day but work calls. Below are some reasons for holding off on a forecast:

• The degree of spread and uncertainty with the storm track is just too much right now - We are looking at a situation where a track even 50-75 miles further west could mean potentially as much as 12-18'' of snow for some in CT where a track 50-75 miles east means maybe only a few to perhaps several inches for some (and this would mainly be eastern CT). This spread is just too much to even throw out a guess at this time. 
• Uncertainty with regards to where the heaviest banding sets up - This can again be tied to the track of the storm and also exactly where the 925mb, 850mb and 700mb lows track and how they develop. There is likely to be some extremely heavy banding with this system which could yield snowfall rates as high as 5'' per hour but it's not clear where this will occur. 
• Tying into the above, because we will have such extreme upward vertical motion we also must have extreme downward vertical motion which we call subsidence. This will create a zone where snowfall rates and intensity are vastly lessened and the result will be much lower snowfall totals for some compared to places around them. This is something that is also near impossible to pinpoint at this time. 
•  The forecasts for such a strong low pressure - This further complicates matters (at least in my eyes). When low pressures become this strong (and we see this happen with hurricanes) precipitation can often become more "band like" (bands f precipitation as opposed to an extensive precipitation shield). This means that you don't have a uniform precipitation field and this means you won't have uniform snowfall totals. Also, inbetween these bands you would have zones of subsidence which means lesser snows for these areas. For example, Windsor Locks could be right under a band and getting 2...3...4'' per hour while Hartford, CT is south of the band and getting barely 1'' per hour. That would result in a big snowfall gradient in just a small distance. Very, very difficult to forecast at this point. Such a strong system can also keep the precipitation field more compact and closer to the storm's center so if the system is further east the heaviest snows likely don't make it into CT. 

What we know...

• I do think that it is LIKELY we at least see moderate snowfall accumulations across much of CT (at least 6'' of snow). Once details become more clear we'll have a better idea of exactly how much.
• Snowfall begins to break out during the pre-dawn hours of Thursday with intensity increasing throughout the morning. How heavy the snow becomes, how long the heavy snow persists, and exactly how heavy the snow rates are will depend on all the factors described above. 
• We will see a period of very strong winds with gusts perhaps exceeding 60 mph. This would yield blizzard and whiteout conditions as well as tree damage and power outages. The extent of the gust potential will also depend on the track .
• As the system departs winds continue and even COLDER air works into the state for the weekend. 

I will have an updated blog and snowfall forecast up tomorrow evening...a bit later than I would like but work calls.