Saturday, December 9th, 2017 Snowfall Forecast Update

No substantial changes to my thinking yesterday, however, based on the latest information I've decided to include much of the state in the 2-4'' snowfall range. Flurries will begin to breakout as early as 7-9 AM across the state (SE sections of the state first) then slowly begin to increase in intensity throughout the morning and into the afternoon hours. During this time, snowfall will range in intensity between light and moderate with snowfall rates perhaps approaching 1/2'' per hour.  Snow will begin to wind down during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Some factors which preclude my thinking for higher snowfall totals include; not a tremendous amount of 700mb vertical velocities encompassing the state. Computer forecast models only show bursts of higher 700mb vertical velocities moving over the state throughout the day and this is when we will see snowfall be more moderate in nature, however, the duration of the moderate snowfall will be on the brief side:

Latest bufkit soundings across the state suggest only modest omega values within the dendritic snowgrowth zone region. This only suggests that snowfall rates will vary between light and moderate. Also, this will work to reduce the snowgrowth potential and lead to lesser snowfall ratios:

Based on the above this is my latest thinking:

Expect a slow commute during the snow tomorrow so extra time should be given during travel.