Strong to Damaging Winds Possible Tuesday and Tuesday Night

A rather vigorous and amplifying (strengthening) upper-level trough will continue advancing eastward over the next few days.  As this trough approaches a strong cold front will approach the region.  Out ahead of this cold front the airmass will be anomalously warm and moist with daytime temperatures on Tuesday expected to push the 70°F mark with surface dewpoints expected to climb into the mid-60's.  The combination of such a warm and moist low-level airmass will help to contribute some rather robust (for the time of year) CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values.  This combined with very strong wind shear in place will yield the potential for perhaps multiple rounds of low-topped convection yielding the potential for torrential downpours and strong to damaging wind gusts.  It is a bit unclear as to whether or not we will see much in the way of thunder or lightning given rather warm mid-level temperatures and how low-topped the convection may be, however, given the strength of the winds aloft even torrential downpours may transfer down strong to damaging wind gusts.  This potential will exist from early Tuesday afternoon lasing through the overnight hours into early Wednesday morning:

With such a warm and moist low-level airmass in place, the NAM and GFS computer forecast models both develop upwards of several hundred J/KG of surface-based CAPE during the afternoon on Tuesday and even keep this in place well until the overnight hours:

Computer forecast models also indicate that even upwards of several hundred J/KG of mixed-layer cape (MLcape) will develop as well on Tuesday with these values sticking around into the overnight hours.  This is rather impressive for this time of year. 

In addition to perhaps modest instability values, wind shear will be quite strong.  Computer forecast models are projecting a 90-105 knot 500mb mid-level jet streak to push towards the region late Tuesday placing southern New England in the right front quadrant of this jet.  This is a region of enhanced upper-level divergence which enhances upward vertical motion.  Along with instability, this feature could help fuel a low-topped line of convection just ahead of the front:

Bufkit soundings for across the region are rather ominous for Tuesday and Tuesday night and indicate the potential for strong to damaging wind gusts.  For lack of more appreciable time on my part we'll just look at the 12z NAM bufkit sounding for Waterbury, CT for 2:00 PM EDT Tuesday afternoon and 2:00 AM EDT Wednesday morning.  While the degree of CAPE is not something you would normally find impressive, given the degree of wind shear in place combined with strong lift from the cold front and the system, these CAPE values are more than enough to warrant the possibility for strong to damaging wind gusts:

2:00 PM EDT Tuesday

2:00 AM EDT Wednesday

While perhaps the degree of winds aloft is a bit weaker, the amount of CAPE is actually greater and actually is forecast to increase a bit more past 2:00 AM EDT:

What can we gather right now?

Tuesday and Tuesday night has the potential to be rather active across southern New England in terms of periods of torrential downpours and the potential for strong to damaging wind gusts and this could come in multiple rounds with the first round of potential during the afternoon hours and the second round overnight as the cold front approaches.  If instability becomes even stronger, yielding the potential for more robust updrafts, the potential for thunder and lightning would increase which would increase the risk for strong to damaging wind gusts.  Right now the potential exists for winds to gust as high as 40-50 mph with gusts potentially to 60 mph.  These higher gusts would occur with the heavier downpours which would act to tap into those stronger winds aloft.  Isolated to scattered pockets of damage would be possible.  As we get closer the details will become much more clearer.