Thursday Storm Update

Yesterday I had made a snowfall forecast and I'm just going to be flat out wrong, especially down across CT.  I jumped the gun too quickly and should have never made an initial forecast with snowfall amounts that high.  It was virtually irresponsible thinking on my part and knowing the red flags I should have been more conservative with my amounts.  Typically when going on the heftier side of amounts, I like to see a tremendous amount of consistency and agreement within the data and that was not the case.  With this said I will be reducing what I am expecting in terms of totals.  

When composing my initial forecast I thought there was credibility that we would see the system really strengthen off the NJ coast and continue to do so as it pushed up to the north and east.  While this would have initially pumped in some warmer air, the rapid strengthening would have led to dynamic cooling which would have quickly cooled the atmosphere and we would see a quick change back to snow and heavy snow.  This scenario, however, does not look like it will happen.  Instead, what we will see if the system strengthen as it's moving up along the SE MA coast and this will mean a massive snow event for a good part of northern New England.  

The highest snowfall totals look to occur across western portions of MA, perhaps down into extreme NW CT.  This is where the latest NAM and GFS computer forecast models indicate this is where the most intense lift will occur.  In this area during the height of the storm, snowfall rates could approach 1.5''/HR and perhaps even as much as 2'' per hour:

Down across the state of CT with the system tracking very close to the coast and no high pressure to the north to secure cold air in the lower levels of the atmosphere and down at the surface we will see warm air quickly surge into CT.  Colder air will remain in place a bit longer across NW CT and the hills of NE CT and this is where the higher totals will occur in the state.  

As the main surface low passes pretty much over CT and tracks northeast, it will begin to strengthen and a closed off circulation develops over the state of RI, this track will mean warmer air also surges northward into east-central and eastern MA so these areas will begin to transition over to rain as well.  West-central and western MA should remain mainly, if not, all snow and this area will receive the higher amounts.  

Down across CT, precipitation will begin between 9:30 AM and 10:30 AM and outside of the southern part of the state, precipitation will start off as snow and quickly change over to rain.  Expect precipitation to begin across RI and MA in the late morning to very early afternoon hours (developing from the SW first and working NE).  Winds will also become strong as well, especially across MA and perhaps RI as well where gusts of 45-55 mph will be possible leading to isolated pockets of power outages.  The precipitation begins to taper off across CT during the early evening hours and it is possible that the precipitation may even end as snow across parts of northern CT.  This could lead to an additional inch or two across some parts.  Across RI and MA everything begins to taper down during the mid-to-late evening hours.    

Below is my updated snowfall map...yes a far cry from what I was expecting yesterday afternoon: