Looking at this morning's run of the GFS forecast model, we see that the trough will be amplifying (deepening) well off to our west. This will allow for heights and subsequent ridging to build into southern New England and also allow for the developing area of low pressure to track to our west:
As the system approaches southern New England it will begin to strengthen and we will see an increase in the winds aloft and also an increase in warm air advection as well as moisture advection. The strengthening of the winds aloft and approaching trough/cold front will also work to rapidly increase the degree of lift (upward vertical motion) across the region. The combination of these factors will lead to widespread rainfall, some of the rain which will be extremely heavy at times:
Computer forecast models strengthen the upper-level jet (250mb winds) and mid-level jets (500mb and 700mb (not shown)) and low-level jets right over the region. The increase in upper/mid level winds will work to strongly increase the degree of lifting aloft and the increase in the low-level jet from the south will transport a great deal of moisture into the region. This is evident by precipitable water values (PWATS) exceeding 1'':
The result will be widespread rainfall on Thursday lasting well through the evening and into the overnight hours. Expect rainfall to be quite heavy at times. Rainfall amounts of 1-2'' should be fairly common with even a few of the favored upslope locations perhaps getting as much as 3'' of rainfall. Localized flooding will be a possibility as well.
Once the trough and cold front pass we will once again see another strong shot of cold-air advection across the region and some more cold temperatures for the weekend.
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