Storm System to Bring Wintry Mix to CT 12/28/2015-12/29/2015

While several locations have witnessed snow flurries or snow showers a few times during the fall/early winter, many of us will see our first wintry precipitation of the 2015-2016 season late Monday night into Tuesday as the next storm system approaches.  Unfortunately (if you're a snow lover) for the state of CT we are not looking at much in the way of snowfall.  You would have to travel further northward into central and northern New England for that.

After a several day stretch of insanely warm temperatures, including numerous records being broken, a push of cold air is working towards and into the state, although its stay will be rather brief.  A shortwave trough moving through southeastern Canada will allow for a pretty strong cold front to push through the state during the late evening/overnight hours of Sunday into Monday.  While the passage of this front will yield to clear skies, temperatures will be much colder than they had been the past several days.  In fact, temperatures will be as much as 15-20F colder with high temperatures barely above the 40F mark!

The next storm system is expected to pass well to our north and west.  As typical with these sort of storm tracks warmer air will eventually overspread the state.  However, initially there will be enough cold air in place for precipitation to began as snow across much of the state with perhaps the exception of the immediate shoreline.  The one feature responsible for this will be the area of high pressure which will slide to the east well off to our north.  The flow around the high will transport and keep colder air locked in at the surface.  However, as the high departs off to the east, we will lose the effects from the high pressure and eventually warm air will also work in at the surface and this is when the transition to plain rain will occur.  While the colder air will be initially locked in at the surface initially, warm air advection will be occurring aloft in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  This will allow for snow to transition to sleet and perhaps even some freezing rain.

 
The end result will be very little in the way of snowfall across the state with the most occurring across the NW/NE Hills, however, this doesn't mean the Tuesday AM commute will be messy.  We will be dealing with slushy roads with sleet perhaps some freezing rain falling along with plain rain.  Expect a very slow AM commute.  Below is what I'm currently thinking as far as any snow goes: