Threat for t'storms later today; some potentially becoming strong to severe

As highlighted yesterday, the potential exists later on for showers and t'storms across the region as a weak secondary cold front slowly shifts eastward.  For the past few days, computer model guidance has suggested that much of the morning hours would be filled with clouds, and this would be one factor limiting how unstable the atmosphere would become.  However, late last evening, cloud cover which blanked the area for much of Sunday drifted off to the east/northeast leaving us with clear skies overnight as well as now.  With much more sunshine than expected, this will allow the atmosphere to become a bit more unstable than previously thought, thus increasing the threat for storms and stronger storms later on.  It is unclear though as to how widespread t'storm activity will be along with how strong or severe the storms could become as there are some question marks which we'll highlight below:

1) Currently dewponts are into the lower 60's south of the MA Pike, lower north of the Pike.  Computer model guidance the past few days have indicated that these dewpoints will mix out...or in other words, decrease, which is beginning to occur now.  This is occurring due to the fact that above the surface, just a few thousand feet ASL, there is some drier air in place, dewpoint temperatures at 925mb (~2500') and 850mb (~5000') are only in the mid to upper 40's.  Typically you'd like to see them into the lower to mid 50's.  As we're moving through the morning hours, and the sun really heats up the atmosphere, allowing for stronger atmospheric mixing, that drier air will begin to mix down to the surface, thus lowering the dewpoints some.  The question is, how much will the dewpoints lower?  This will have major implications as well with regards to how unstable the atmosphere will become.  
Even if dewpoints do lower, there is potential for them to actually increase later on this afternoon.  We are noting some higher theta-e air working into the state, which would allow for dewpoints to increase.  A sea-breeze developing later on may help to increase them as well along with surface winds perhaps backing more to the south or southeast.  
2) As mentioned yesterday, the cold front is not particularly strong, so there isn't a great deal of forcing along it.  What this means is, that could limit how widespread the activity becomes and how much action we see develop.  On the other hand, since this would mean storms are more isolated in nature, this could allow them to become even stronger/more severe given they will have much more energy to tap into.
3) Forecast soundings show some funky warm spots in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. While some colder air will work in aloft, that doesn't necessarily mean these warm layers will dissipate.  These warm layers could affect storm updrafts in that it will be a bit more difficult for storms to grow very large, disallowing them to really tap into the wind energy and much colder air aloft, decreasing the threat for stronger winds and larger hail. 
With those factors mentioned, today, we are looking at temperatures reaching well into the mid 80's away from the immediate coast with dewpoints hovering around the 60F mark.  The combination of temps/dews, along with colder air working into the mid-levels of the atmosphere, will allow for a fairly unstable airmass with Cape values perhaps reaching 1500-2000 J/KG, especially if dewpoints increase later on and lifted index values as low as -3C to -4C.  Winds aloft are also quite strong, evident by vertical shear values in excess of 35-45 knots.  The combination of instability/shear will lead to the development of showers/t'storms later on and given the mentioned parameters, some of these storms will become quite strong to severe with the potential to produce damaging winds and large hail.  We will also have to keep an eye on for any rotating t'storms, increasing the hail threat.  Flash flooding will be a concern too, especially in low lying areas given amount of rain we have had.  The timeframe for t'storms will be from about 3-10 PM tonight.  Originally, it was thought storms would die as the sun would begin to set, however, with colder air working in aloft through the evening, this will help to keep instability around a bit longer.  
The front is expected to stall either over the state or just west and this will once again allow the potential for t'storms tomorrow with a renewed threat for strong/severe storms.